Domestic policy

This week important information on Armenia’s domestic political life has been received from abroad. It is an officially published opinion on the report released by the ad hoc commission of the RA Parliament set up to study the tragic events in Yerevan on March 1, 2008. The report by the PACE co-rapporteurs Georges Colombier and John Prescott should be viewed as a signal to the Armenian authorities on the threshold of the PACE session scheduled for late January. The session may consider the democratic development situation in Armenia. The co-rapporteurs stressed that the ad hoc commission conducted a much more detailed study of the March 1 events in Yerevan than is indicated in its report. This censorship calls the commission’s work into question, stated the PACE co-rapporteurs for Armenia. They stressed that the commission’s report does not say anything about further arrests and persecutions of opposition members. Georges Colombier and John Prescott also pointed out the lack of any progress in the investigation into the circumstances that resulted in ten deaths. They stressed that the questions must be answered, otherwise the impression is that the Armenian police are trying to conceal the facts. Thus, all of a sudden, the co-rapporteurs “have awoken out of sleep” and decided to remind the Armenian authorities that they have not so far honored numerous points of the PACE resolution on the situation in Armenia. Such is the conclusion contained in the report published by the PACE co-rapporteurs, who regularly point out progress in Armenia’s overcoming the domestic political crisis only to criticize the country’s authorities later. It is noteworthy that the document has “cropped up” just before the next stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process scheduled for next January. This suggests a conclusion about international agencies’ desire to pressure official Yerevan into further concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh. On the other hand, it should be noted that any European official could have criticized the report published by the ad hoc parliamentary commission headed by Samvel Nikoyan: the commission was formed of the ruling parties’ representatives, who from the very outset advocated the official interpretation of last year’s election processes.

On December 25, RA Ombudsman Armen Harutyunyan presented a special report, pointing out violations of human rights at the trials of the persons arrested during last year’s post-election processes. The report includes the results of monitoring conducted by the Ombudsman’s representatives.

The extra-parliamentary opposition openly accused the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) of coordinating its actions of protest against the Armenian-Turkish protocols with the Armenian authorities. At his meeting with journalists, Levon Zurabyan, Central Office Coordinator, Armenian National Congress (ANC), stated that the ARF is coordinating all its actions with the authorities. According to him, high-ranking ARF members – Hrant Margaryan, Vahan Hovhannisyan and Armen Rustamyan – held a meeting with President of the RA Constitutional Court Gagik Harutyunyan. “May be, they [ARF] are trying to fit in with their [authorities’] plans?” Zurabyan said. His statements, however, were obviously aimed against the action of protest the ARF intends to hold on January 12, when the RA Constitutional Court is to consider the issue of constitutionality of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. In fact, the extra-parliamentary opposition pointed out the authorities’ involvement in the recent actions of protest held by the newly fledged ARF opposition.

At the trial of Editor-in-Chief of the opposition Haykakan Zhamanak (Armenian Times) newspaper Nikol Pashinyan, the Prosecution demanded eight years of imprisonment for him for organizing riots and using violence against a policeman. The Public Prosecutor’s speech made the impression that the Prosecution ignored all the arguments presented by the Defense. The “higher rate” of the trial is the evidence of the authorities’ seeking to get a verdict of guilty returned on Nikol Pashinyan as soon as possible. In this case he will not be able to run to Parliament from Election District #10 in Yerevan – the by –elections are scheduled for January 10. The problem is, however, that the New Year holidays are to last from December 31 to January 10 in Armenia, and court sittings cannot be held during the holidays. Despite the threat that Pashinyan’s registration as a parliamentary candidate may be invalidated the Opposition is canvassing for its candidate. On January 8, the last day for electioneering the Opposition plans to hold a rally in Yerevan.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

The Russian Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Yuri Merzlyakov made rather optimistic statements on the prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. In his interview with an Azerbaijani website he said that the co-chairs’ priority task is to maintain the positive dynamics in the negations next year. “We have conditions for progress. But further developments are difficult to forecast. Next year we are going to organize the next Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting. We will discuss the time and place when we arrive in the region,” Merzlyakov said. The Co-Chairs will do their best for more appreciable results to be received next year. “It is not a framework agreement. It is agreeing on the basic principles of settlement, with further work on them done at each presidential meeting. If agreed on, they will serve as a basis for a comprehensive peace agreement,” Merzlyakov said. What is immediately striking is his unwillingness to speak of any specific terms of agreements – Merzlyakov speaks of the whole next year. His statements are in conformity with the recent statements made by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, who said that, after the basic principles are agreed on, work on a comprehensive agreement will get under way next year. The fact remains: the forecasts about the sides’ signing a document before the end of this year will prove to be too optimistic unless any extraordinary events happen. Evidence thereof is also the fact that, after returning from Baku, the OSCE MG Co-Chairs will visit Yerevan in January 2010, with no information on the time and place of the next Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting available. So we can with confidence speak of rather considerable uncertainty surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process as to the terms of success in the negations.

The Turkish Foreign Minister’s visit to Brussels made him call to mind the advantages of shrewd Turkish diplomacy and make a number of optimistic statements intended for the “outer world.” Ahmet Davutoglu made an attempt to “ease” the impression Turkey’s western partners got from Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements in Washington, when he set preconditions for further Armenia-Turkish normalization process. So the Turkish Foreign Minister showed a constructive approach, which is not typical of Turkish top-ranking officials over the last month. “The implementation of the Armenian-Turkish protocols must be considered from only a positive viewpoint. Unfavorable developments do not the interests of either side. No one wants to return to the situation before the protocols were signed. The implementation of the protocols and establishment of peace in the region can be regarded as a positive scenario,” the Turkish FM said. He conveniently forgot to mention Azerbaijan, which is doing its best to thwart the Armenian-Turkish negotiations. The Turkish FM’s optimism intended for the western partners reached the point when he began speaking of reopening the Armenian-Turkish border, which has been blocked for many years. The Turkish FM would not have sounded optimistic if he had not “smoothly changed the subject” and begun speaking of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. “It would be a good thing is the same goodwill were shown in the other process, considering the fact that the Minsk Group has registered serious progress. We all have brought the process up to a certain point, and the Athens meetings were a success as well,” Davutoglu said. Instead of speaking of timeframes, the Turkish FM believes the Armenian-Turkish relations will produce specific results in the future. Finally, he linked the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, trying to “ease” the unfavorable impression Turkey’s western partners had after Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the United States. That attempt, however, did not in any way change the very essence of the Turkish leaders’ position, and all those sure that no preconditions for normalization really exist can think about it.

Economy and social life

Toward the end of this year, the ministers in charge of the Armenian economy held meetings with journalists. RA Minister of Economy Nerses Yeritsyan made a number of optimistic statements. He pointed out that the economic sectors based on domestic demand, particularly the IT and tourist industries, remained unaffected by the economic crisis. Moreover, they even registered growth. He stressed the need for further economic diversification. The Minister said that the major challenge to the Armenian economy next year will be further diversification, export promotion and getting access to world markets. Yeritsyan said that the matter primarily concerns the negotiations for a free trade zone with the European Union.

The European Commission has assigned €2m to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia for preparatory work to cope with natural disasters and enhance the potential of relevant government agencies and local government bodies. The funds will be channeled through the Development & Humanitarian Aid, with European Commissioner for Development & Humanitarian Aid Karel De Gucht being in charge. The project provides for training courses in disaster management and creation of warning systems. The projects will be implemented by UN agencies and NGOs, particularly by the International Committee of the Red Cross.

At his meeting with journalists, RA Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan reported that the Yerevan thermal power plant will be put into operation on April 21, 2010. The construction work is nearing completion, which, according to the Minister is one of the greatest achievements in the Armenian energy sector. Movsisyan pointed out that the electric energy to be produced by the Yerevan thermal power plant will be consumed only in Armenia.

Next year Armenian students will continue receiving scholarships. In 2010 the RA Ministry of Education and Science will introduce a new system, an accumulation fund. The funds will be channeled into crediting students paying tuition frees. Thus, pressured by the public, particularly by youth NGOs, Minister Armen Ashotyan, who earlier circulated a canard about the abolition of scholarships, had to go back on his word and put off his plans.

T.P.