Domestic policy

This week both the government and opposition camps continued commenting on the possibility of ex-president Robert Kocharyan’s coming back into politics. Journalists took advantage of the rare appearance Chairman of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) Gagik Tsarukyan made in Parliament. Most experts believe him to be the ex-president’s protégé. Talking to journalists, the oligarch actually declined to discuss the possibility of Robert Kocharyan’s return to active political life. He only pointed out that, judging by his nature, the former president will announce his decision himself. Representatives of the uncompromising Opposition consider such developments unlikely.

“I do not think Kocharyan’s return to politics in possible – not only because he has numerous crimes on his conscience, but also because the people hate him. His trip to Iran ordered by Serzh Sargsyan proved this fact once again,” stated Levon Zurabyan, Central Office Coordinator, Armenian National Congress (ANC). He put forward a most interesting argument: if Robert Kocharyan had any plans to return, he would not have “accomplished Serzh Sargsyan’s task.” The following question is still in the air: was the ex-president really carrying out the Armenian leaders’ task by visiting Teheran? Although the Armenian Foreign Minister stated that Robert Kocharyan had coordinated his visit with the authorities, his “independent political game” remains a subject continuously talked about.

Two oligarchs, PAP Chairman Gagik Tsarukyan and the member of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) Ruben Hairapetyan, are trying to settle their conflict like old buddies. As a result, the blame was laid on journalists, who, according to Mr. Tsarukyan, spoil his relations with Mr. Hairapetyan, “by poking and prying.” So the mass media are responsible for Mr. Tsarukyan’s explanation for his refusal to attend a match between the Armenian Turkish national football teams in Bursa – the Armenian team had poor chances — and for the resultant high words with Ruben Hairapetyan, President of the Football Federation of Armenia.

The appeal for prohibition of the Heritage Party made by Chairman of the pygmy party Constitutional Right Union (CRU) Haik Babukhanyan caused a scandal. Not without reason, Heritage Party members noted that Babukhanyan’s statements could be taken no notice of if they were his own statements.

After numerous splits a couple of years ago, both of the parts of CRU remained under the Armenian authorities’ control. It must be the plans and desires of some forces in the Armenian Establishment that account for the CRU’s appearance on the political scene. We would like to note that the very proposal for prohibition of the Heritage Party for anti-state activities can hardly be considered a serious one, as the Armenian authorities are most unlikely to create additional problems for themselves — both inside the country and in their relations with the Council of Europe. The PACE Rapporteurs on Armenia, John Prescott and Georges Colombier, demanded that official Yerevan, as soon as possible, present a clear plan of overcoming the domestic political crisis, identifying and punishing those responsible for the death of people during the tragic events in March 2008. Under the circumstances, prohibiting a parliamentary party would be the last straw. The reason was a row the Heritage Party member Zaruhi Bostanjyan dared to kick up at the PACE winter session over being removed from the Armenian delegation. The following two conclusions can be drawn: the Armenian authorities decided to probe into public opinion and cow the Heritage Party, which is strongly against the Armenian-Turkish protocols, or Haik Babukhanyan just wanted to remind the public of himself, stirring up excitement over his person and doing a disservice to the authorities.

Let us speak of the widening gap between the Heritage Party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), which, supported by a number of pygmy political forces, combined their efforts in struggling against the Armenian-Turkish protocols last autumn. An argument over which of the political forces was real Opposition resulted in a conflict. Armen Rustamyan, a prominent ARF member and member of the Armenian delegation to PACE proved to be “the hero” of the argument. During PACE’s winter session late this January he staunchly supported his colleagues the ruling coalition. Taking the opportunity, Zaruhi Bostanjyan accused the ARF of supporting the Armenian authorities. Vahan Hovhannisyan, Head of the ARF parliamentary faction, interfered in the situation and pointed out that the Armenian people, rather than the European agencies, decide on which political forces are opposition ones. However, as expected, speaking in Parliament Mr. Hovhannisyan conveniently forgot that the people had formed a clear idea of this and had no wish to view the ARF as an opposition force. The party’s flip and flop policy toward the Armenian authorities is a factor strengthening this opinion.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and region

The United States, concerned over the slowdown in the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process and non-constructive rhetoric used by high-ranking Turkish officials, decided to draw the sides’ attention to the necessity for progress on this “thorny path”, which began with what is known as “the road map.” This time, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon, with Moscow’s tacit consent, decided to issue instructions to Ankara and Yerevan. He stressed that Armenia and Turkey should make progress in ratifying the protocols and normalizing their relations. “We believe this is an opportunity to overcome really historic differences between the two countries in a way that would benefit both,” he said.

“To establish normalized relations between the two countries and open the border would contribute to peace and stability in the region,” the U.S. official said. The Turkish and Azerbaijani authorities had to feel disappointed, as the high-ranking official of the U.S. Department of State once more underlined the necessity for Armenian-Turkish reconciliation regardless of all other issues. “We think that is true regardless of other issues — that it needs to move forward independently of other issues, simply because it is in the interest of the two countries,” Gordon said. He added that the U.S. Government is maintaining contacts with Yerevan and Ankara, urging them to progress. Thus, we are once again witnessing an agreement over the necessity for stabilization in the region between the major geopolitical players, United States and Russia. RF Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently spoke in a similar vein in his Turkish counterpart’s presence.

But the Turkish leaders fail to understand the Great Powers’ position, as they remain hostage to hysterical Azerbaijan. Official Baku continues showing the world its being out of touch with reality and unwilling to contribute to long-lasting peace in the region.

“Turkey is being accused of delaying the ratification of the protocols. In fact, however, Turkey is seeking to establish contacts both between the Armenian and Turks scattered all over the world and with Armenia,” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said. At the same time he stressed that Ankara is not going to admit the Armenian Genocide. The Turkish FM disregarded the appeals for not linking the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process to other problems, including the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, made by Washington and Moscow. “20% of Azerbaijan’s territories are occupied, and neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan agrees with the status quo. That is why Turkey changed its attitude to the protocols. In spite of this, the protocols will be ratified provided this problem is resolved. Turkey does not lose hope,” Davutoglu said.

It is noteworthy that the Turkish FM’s statement reflects the “intellect” of top-ranking Azerbaijani officials, which is not at all to his credit. We mean his being rude and out of touch with reality. There can hardly be any other designation of Davutoglu’s statements. It was an agreement on the possibility of any changes in the status quo in the region between the West and the East that that “inaugurated” the Armenian-Turkish process. But the geopolitical players have not so far succeeded in bringing home to Azerbaijan the possibility of such developments provided the conflicting parties are ready for mutual painful concessions. Noteworthy in Davutoglu’s latest statements is also the fact that he actually admitted that Turkey had changed its attitude to the Armenian-Turkish protocols, whereas during the latter half of January official Ankara was accusing Armenia of interpreting the protocols in its own way, the RA Constitutional Court’s verdict being meant.

RA Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian made an important statement in Parliament this week. He stressed that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is impossible to settle without Nagorno-Karabakh being involved. Nalbandian stated that the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs understand Armenia’s position. The Armenian FM’s statements were actually a response to the MP Naira Zohrabyan’s question concerning the reports that the preamble to the Madrid principles highlights the necessity for Nagorno-Karabakh’s participation in the negotiations. The information was circulated after the Armenian-Russian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Sochi, Russia. Responding to the remark that Azerbaijan denies the reports, Nalbandian said: “Azerbaijan is showing its destructive approach once again.”

Really, Azerbaijan is still dreaming of the international community “cutting Armenia down to size.” Time and again, the dreams develop into desperate appeals to the geopolitical players. This week they have been made by Novruz Mamedov, Head of the Foreign Relations Department, Azerbaijani Presidential Administration. The reason for the desperate steps is clear: official Baku has a growing awareness of the fact that it is in fact Azerbaijan that the international community is going to “cut down to size” for its unwillingness for any concessions on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

Economy and social life

The Armenian authorities at last decided to think about the upward trends in prices over the last few months. RA President Serzh Sargsyan chaired a meeting that discussed the problem. Speaking in RA Parliament, Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that the prices are in the Government’s limelight and it “must take measures to keep them down.” However, the RA Premier never answered a question about the social consequences of a 40% rise in gas price scheduled for April 1, 2010.

The economic crisis affected brandy production in Armenia. Last year brandy output totaled 9.869m liters – a 38.4% decrease as compared with 2008.

The vodka and liqueur output reached 13.146m liters – a 7.7% increase compared with last year, RA National Statistical Service reports. Wine output totaled 4,372.1 thousand liters (a 30.8% increase), champagne output reached 456.4 thousand liters (a 1.7% decrease), and beer output 10,825.3 thousand liters (a 2.8% increase).

Last year Armenia’s imports of oil and oil products totaled of 344,510 tons or U.S. $237.93 in terms of customs value – a 13.9% decrease or a 36.3% decrease in terms of customs value as compared with the previous year, the RA State Revenue Committee reports.

The Armavia airline is ready to carry out domestic flights provided local airports are re-operated. Armavia President Mikhail Bagdasarov stated that only two airports, Yerevan and Gyumri, are operating in Armenia. He said that the airline plans to purchase a new ATF-42-500 plane for domestic flights provided the RA Civil Aviation Committee re-operates the Goris and Kapan airports. Bagdasarov stated that the Artsakh-Avia airline will carry out Yerevan-Stepanakert flights after the Stepanakert airport has been constructed.

T.P.