Domestic policy

On October 20, the minor court of the Shengavit community, Yerevan, started trying the case of Nikol Pashinyan, Editor-in-Chief of the opposition newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak, one of the most important “characters” in last year’s post-election processes and ardent supporter of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the leader of the Armenian National Congress. As was expected, the trial is running a course similar to that of the sensational trial of the Seven Case, which collapsed after the charges were dismissed under European agencies’ pressure. The trial is conspicuous by too many “coincidences”: Pashinyan is sitting in the same bulletproof booth, and the case is being tried by Judge Mnatakan Martirosyan, who is “famous” for having tried a number of political cases. The first days of the trial show the same picture as during the other trials of the Armenian Opposition members: only the defendant’s relatives are allowed to attend the court sittings, journalists encounter difficulties in performing their professional duties, the TV is almost silent and hundreds of ANC members clash with police. Inside the courtroom the events are developing “as planned.” The accused and his lawyers first challenged the judge and then the Prosecution. Their petitions were naturally rejected. Before the first court sitting, Nikol Pashinyan stated his intention to follow the procedure to “strip the authorities of the opportunity of turning a substantial talk into a sensation.” He explained that by using the phrase “esteemed court” he shows his respect for the Armenian Coat of Arms, national flag and public, rather than for “the corrupt judge Mnatsakan Martirosyan.” The Opposition has obviously changed its tactics. During the trial of the Seven Case Ter-Petrosyan’s supporters would not rise when the judge entered the courtroom and repeatedly hampered the proceedings. At present Pashinyan does not put any obstacles, making statements condemning and exposing the law-enforcement agencies, which “have not so far identified the culprits in the tragic events on March 1, who issued orders and murdered people, being an integral part of the corrupt pyramid of power.” As the trial unfolds, the “litigants” are expected to make statements that will be getting more and more interesting to the public.

Most unexpected developments have been observed with the by-elections to the RA Parliament in election district #10, the Central community of Yerevan. The seat has remained vacant since the opposition MP Khachatur Sukiasyan resigned from Parliament and went to Germany “for his health” thereby actually terminating his political activities. The RA Central Electoral Commission appointed the by-elections for January 10, 2010. It is obvious that during the “monumental hangover” between the “new” and “old” New Years, a big pro-governmental businessman or oligarch will lay his hands on this “fatty” constituency. Although official nomination is ahead, everything is most likely to follow this course, to say nothing of the fact that, appointed for the end of the New Year holidays, the by-election will be marked by an extremely low turnout. However, Suren Surenyants, member of the Political Council, the opposition Republic Party, caused a “slight change” in the developments: he unexpectedly stated his intention to run for Parliament from Election District #10. Things took an interesting turn, as official representatives of the ANC, with the Republic Party forming part thereof, stated Surenyants did not coordinate his steps with the ANC, and the political force does not plan to support him. With the party leaders’ silence considered, one has the impression that Surenyants made a personal decision, with his motives being unknown to the public. In any case, Surenyants’ nomination is unlikely to have an essential influence on the forthcoming election campaign, all the more so that the ANC actually refused to support him.

Hakob Hakobyan, who defected to the ANC during last year’s presidential campaign, withdrew in the by-elections in Election District #8 in favor of the pro-governmental oligarch Samvel Alexanyan, who is in control of the Malatiya-Sebastiya community.

The “small-scale” rallies held by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) on October 16 were followed by the passivity of political forces that used to rally round the ARF and its actions against the Armenian-Turkish Protocols. Although they can yet be expected to intensify their activities before the Protocols are submitted to the RA Parliament for ratification, the plans to form an Opposition to the “authorities’ taste” obviously show their “low efficiency.” Evidence thereof is not only some parties’ futile attempts to raise a wave of protest against the Protocols, but also disagreements between them: the ARF cannot “make up its mind” to demand President Serzh Sargsyan’s resignation, whereas the Heritage Party believes it is the only way of preventing the ratification of the Protocols. New developments during the consideration of the Protocols by the Armenian Parliament will provide an answer to the question: has a new “constructive opposition” been formed?

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

This week the high-ranking officials representing all the interested sides focused their statements on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The issue has gradually come to the forefront though the prospects of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols in the two Parliaments remain topical as well.

RA President Serzh Sargsyan and RA Minister of Defense Seyran Ohanyan paid a two-day visit to Nagorno-Karabakh, where, accompanied by local officials, they attended a house-warming ceremony for army officers in the Hadrud region. The Armenian President visited the positions and held a meeting with the command staff. Although no detailed information was available, the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process was reportedly discussed.

Despite stock statements, the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations are getting worse, which is manifested by fits of hysteria in Baku. Two Vice-Speakers of the Azeri Parliaments expressed their “deep resentment” at the fact that Azeri flags were not brought to the Bursa stadium during the Armenia-Turkey football match. “Retaliatory measures” were not coincidence: Turkish flags were taken down along the “Shahid lane”, as well as in a number of other places, in Baku.

Of interest is also Azerbaijan’s concern over its “territorial expectations” – the return of five of the seven regions forming a security zone round about Nagorno-Karabakh by the Armenian side. Active development of the Armenia-Turkey normalization process, with Baku’s howl over “occupied” territories ignored, made the Azerbaijani authorities realize the development of an unfavorable situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and the possibility of official Yerevan’s harder line in the context of the Ilham Aliyev regime’s unwillingness to make reciprocal concessions.

Contradictory information on the telephone conversation between the Turkish and Azerbaijani President has been received. Turkish mass media only reported on an agreement to relieve the tension in the bilateral relations reached by Ilham Aliyev and Abdullah Gul, whereas Azeri media reported the opposite. According to the Azerbaijani presidential press office, the Turkish leader stressed that no normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is possible as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unsettled. In response, the Azeri leader thanked him.

As regards the forthcoming consideration of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols by the two Parliaments, its development does not spring any surprise. Ankara is likely to be the first to complete the procedure. The Armenian authorities, securing themselves against further doubts concerning the constitutionality of the Protocols, decided to send the documents to the Constitutional Court before the Parliament considers them. One can hardly doubt “a favorable verdict” by the Constitutional Court, as well as by the Armenian Parliament – unless anything extraordinary happens. Since the CC has not yet considered the documents, they will hardly be submitted to the next four-day session of the RA Parliament. If so the two Parliaments are most unlikely to complete the ratification before this end of this month.

Turkey does not seem to object to ratifying the Protocols before Armenia. This week it has made active progress especially since a bill on the Armenian Genocide is once again “imminent” at the U.S. Congress as a bludgeon over official Ankara. The National Security Council of Turkey chaired by President Abdullah Gul discussed the documents for eight hours. On October 21, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu introduced the Protocols before the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. Of greatest interest is Davutoglu’s speech, when he made a number of important statements. Specifically, in contrast to the Armenian authorities’ assurances, Davutoglu stressed that recognizing Turkey’s present-day borders is a precondition for normalization of bilateral relations. He also pointed out Turkey’s active role in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, referring to contacts with U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton. Following the traditional “declarations of love and loyalty” to Azerbaijan, the Turkish FM made a substantial statement for the future: the positive effect of Turkey’s efforts on the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations requires time. We have yet to know what he meant by the phrase.

Economy and social life

This week Gazprom (Russia) has decided to make a minor concession in setting a final gas prices for Armenia from April 1, 2010. Under a preliminary agreement, Armenia will pay U.S. $180 for 1,000 cubic meters against the previously announced U.S. $200. The current price is U.S. $154. Karen Karapetyan, President of the ArmRosgazprom Company, confirmed the information and told reporters about the work at the Hrazdan thermal-power plant. He assured the journalists that the 5^th power unit will be put into operation next June Thus, Armenia will have a station with two power units: an old, 300MW, unit and a new, 480MW, one.

RA Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan reported that the construction of the Meghri HPP on the Armenian-Iranian border is to get under way late this or early next year. The project development is nearing completion. “Iranian companies specializing in this field will sponsor the project, and the investments will be returned in the form of energy,” Movsisyan said.

In the context of reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border, Director General of South Caucasus Railway Shevket Shaidullin made an important statement on the company’s further activities. “Our task is to gain control of the Europe-Caucasus-Asia transit corridor, and we have discussed the issue with the Armenian President and Prime Minister,” he said. Shaidullin pointed out that a new logistical center designed for 70 cars will be opened at the Akhuryan station in a month. The company’s strategy is developing such centers, which will help the Armenian railway meet the international standards. The company is also considering the possibility of constructing a new branch, Fioletovo-Vanadzor. Shaidullin stressed the company’s active cooperation with the Georgian railway in ensuring cargo transportation. He also pointed out an increase in passenger traffic between Armenia and Georgia.

From November 5, the France Telecom Company, registered in Armenia as FTA-Telecom, will start rendering Orange-branded mobile communication and Internet services. From October 21, the prospective customers can register on www.orangearmenia.am website to receive numbers. Within 15 days starting November 5, Orange service centers will provide free numbers. Orange got mobile communication license last November.

The European Court is considering a claim against Armenia by Sukiasyan family, owners of the Bjni CJSC. The European Court proposed that the claimants provide all the rest information. The company lodged its claim on July 24, 2009, charging the Republic of Armenia with unlawful actions and demanding €220m compensation. The Armenian opposition claims that the company’s problems are the result of Khachatur Sukiasyan’s support of Levon Ter-Petrosyan in last year’s presidential election in Armenia.