Joe Biden visited the countries of Central Europe several weeks after U.S. decided not to construct a ballistic missile system (BMD), the article by George Friedman and Peter Zeihan titled “Iran, Russia and the Biden Speech” on the Stratfor website says. The authors are concerned over the fact that U.S. claimed the deployment has nothing to do with Russians, though “the timing raised some questions.”

“He reasserted American commitment to their security and promised the delivery of other weapons such as Patriot missile batteries, an impressive piece of hardware that really does enhance regional security (unlike BMD, which would grant only an indirect boost). Then, Biden went even further in Romania, not only extending his guarantees to the rest of Central Europe, but also challenging the Russians directly,” the article reads.

The authors suppose that “it was not Biden going off on a tangent, but rather an expression of Obama administration policy.”

George Friedman and Peter Zeihan propose three scenarios, explaining what happened in the interval before the decision not to deploy BMD and Biden’s speech. They are as follows:
“The first possibility is that the Obama administration decided to shift policy on Russia in disappointment over Moscow's lack of response to the BMD overture. The second possibility is that the Obama administration didn't consider the effects of the BMD reversal. The third possibility, a variation on the second scenario, is that the administration might not yet have a coordinated policy on Russia.”

The authors underline that Russia collaborates with Iran and also “is sewing up the Caucasus.” Russia’s influence is increasing in the South Caucasus with Armenia-Turkey rapprochement, as the relations of Turkey and Azerbaijan “have soured.” Thus, U.S. needs “to change the game.”

“The only country that could challenge Russia's southern flank is Turkey, and until now, the best Russian hedge against Turkish power has been an independent (although certainly still a Russian client) Armenia. (Turkish-Armenian relations have been frozen in the post-Cold War era over the contentious issue of the Armenian genocide.) A few months ago, Russia offered the Turks the opportunity to improve relations with Armenia. The Turks are emerging from 90 years of near-comatose international relations, and they jumped at the chance to strengthen their position in the Caucasus. But in the process, Turkey's relationship with its heretofore regional ally, Azerbaijan (Armenia's archfoe), has soured. Terrified that they are about to lose their regional sponsor, the Azerbaijanis have turned to the Russians to counterbalance Armenia, while the Russians still pull all Armenia's strings. The end result is that Turkey's position in the Caucasus is now far weaker than it was a few months ago, and Russia still retains the ability to easily sabotage any Turkish-Armenian rapprochement,” article goes on.

Flat-out challenging the Central Europeans to help other former Soviet Union countries recreate the revolutions they launched when they broke with the Soviet empire in 1989, specifically calling for such efforts in Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia, is as bald-faced a challenge as the Americans are currently capable of delivering. And to ensure there was no confusion on the point, Biden also promised publicly whatever support the Central Europeans might ask for. Washington wants to force the Russians to focus on their own neighborhood, ideally forgetting about the Iranians in the process," the experts conclude.