By Armen Gevorgyan

After Mikheil Saakashvili’s futile attempts to declare Georgia a full-fledged state capable of implementing its own foreign policy, the two other Transcaucasian states, Armenia and Azerbaijan, are going to have “hard days.” The pole with a “flag of democracy”, symbol of the South Caucasus, flying upon it, was smashed against the Georgian leader’s head. It does not matter at all that President Saakashvili is trying to implement a completely utopian idea – turning a country with a 15-year history into a regional center of force. What matters is that he thus jeopardized Georgia’s neighbors, states of similar political weight.

There is no point in proving that neither Russia nor Turkey and Iran view Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia as “full-fledged actors” on the regional political and economic scene – an Iranian diplomat working in the region made it clear in a private talk. He called for remembering the historical moments when Iran occupied the Georgian territory thereby reaching the Russian borders, or Russian troops entered the Turkish territory. Thus, the Great Powers view the three Transcaucasian states formed after the USSR’s collapse as a mere anomaly, a buffer for maneuvering, a game of solitaire, with the cards to be finally laid on the table or laid out in a different combination. According to the Iranian diplomat, it is Nagorno-Karabakh that can be considered a real regional force – the small region has historically been a bigger headache for the Great Powers that Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia taken together. But it is Azerbaijan, rather than Nagorno-Karabakh, that our story is about.

Iran’s unilateral decision to abolish visa requirements for Azerbaijan caused a mild panic in Baku. Azerbaijan gave a quite adequate response to Iran’s signal. The point is: Iran will be get involved in the process of re-dividing the region launched after the Project Georgia failed. In fact, in the context of its regional interests, Iran has made a very timely and sober step. Turkey has remained Iran’s principal rival for influencing Azerbaijan. Armenia, a Christian barrier between Turkey and Azerbaijan, enabled Iran to consistently implement its policy in Azerbaijan. The prospective establishment of Armenian-Turkish relations and Turkey’s “entry” to the South Caucasus incited Iran to more decisive actions. The abolition of visa requirements is a powerful signal, which means that Iranian-Turkish struggle for Azerbaijan will not be of political, economic or military, but of demographic, socio-cultural and religious nature.

On November 11, Iran made a unilateral decision abolishing visa requirements. The decision followed the Iranian Foreign Minister’s proposal. In this context, Asim Mollazade, member of the Milli Majlis of Azerbaijan stated: “I do not think Azerbaijan, too, should unilaterally abolish the visa system for Iran, all the more so because we are in still conflict with Armenia. Iran is not a country attracting our citizens, and I do not expect many Azerbaijanis to flow into Iran. On the other hand, it is the Iranian Government’s decision, and our relevant agencies must be ready for new visa regulations with that country,” he said.

Of note, however, is not the Azeri parliamentarian’s concern or his reference to the conflict with Armenia, which actually has nothing in common with Iran’s decision. Of importance are Turkey’s steps that followed that decision. Official Ankara gave an extremely rapid response. The same day, November 11, speaking at a meeting of the Central Body of the ruling Justice and Development Party, Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the issue of “mutual abolition of visa regulations” by Azerbaijan and Turkey is on Ankara’s agenda. He reported that a relevant arrangement had been made with Baku.

Official Baku gave a much calmer, but a fairly cautious, response to the Turkish Premier’s statement. The Azerbaijani Establishment is well aware of the fact that Iran stands a much better chance of “devouring” Azerbaijan – a pseudo-state of Caucasian Tatars bearing the name of an Iranian province formed for the purpose of further partitioning of Iran – than Turkey, which has no common border with Azerbaijan. The real purport of Baku’s radical move toward Russia is not to play a dirty trick on Turkey, which is negotiating with Azerbaijan. Rather, it is to create an alternative to their “brothers” in terms of both faith and language. These are pointless efforts, as Azerbaijan has nothing to protect. Aliyev’s attempts to turn Nagorno-Karabakh into a national idea and build up statehood have proved as vain as Azerbaijani centuries-long “labor” in choosing between the Roman and Cyrillic alphabet for their language.