Domestic policy

This week, after an interval, the Opposition Leader, Chairman of the Armenian National Congress (ANC) Levon Ter-Petrosyan has appeared in public. He made a speech at a closed meeting of the ANC active members, but the text of his speech was sent out to mass media. Without going into details, we would like to speak of the general impression produced by Ter-Petrosyan’s statements. It is obvious that Ter-Petrosyan and his supporters have no intention to hold actions of protest against the Armenian-Turkish protocols. Moreover, the Opposition leader kept his promise: after the authorities rejected the repeated appeals for releasing all the arrested Opposition members, he left the authorities “face to face” with the external pressure in connection with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, without holding rallies of protest. On November 11, however, Ter-Petrosyan did not burn all the bridges behind him, leaving a chance of cooperation with the authorities. The idea of releasing the 17 Opposition members ran all through the ANC Chairman’s speech. Ter-Petrosyan addressed another “cooperation message” to the authorities – with cooperation in dealing with national problems possible provided the Opposition members are released.

The developments involving by-elections to the RA Parliament in election District #10 are getting more and more interesting. The most intriguing is the registration of Nikol Pashinyan, Editor-in-Chief of the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper, who is on trial. Hardly anyone had any doubts that the authorities would do their best to refuse registration. One more conclusion can be drawn from the authorities’ actions: they are acting in the “best” traditions of fighting the Opposition. Only the “brave” law-enforcers of Armenia could issue a certificate informing that Nikol Pashinyan was absent from Armenia from February 26, 2008, to July 7, 2009, considering the fact that late last February Pashinyan was at the head of massive opposition rallies in Liberty Square and is now charged with having organized riots on March 1, 2008, the time when he was allegedly absent from Armenia. If the authorities made a political decision to prevent the oppositionist from participating in the by-elections, they might have invented less absurd reasons than denying him a document confirming his presence in Armenia during a certain period and, at the same time, demonstrating a video record with his active participation in the protest rallies in Yerevan on March 1, 2008. The Armenian law-enforcement agencies must be unable to understand their own actions and possible consequences. As regards the Armenian authorities, they are most likely to fight “until the last gun is fired” to prevent Pashinyan’s participation in the by-elections, which will only add political dividends to the Opposition. Besides the “epic” about Pashinyan’s nomination, another intrigue is that the businessman Eduard Madatyan, who intends to run for Parliament in the by-elections, was denied a certificate confirming his presence in Armenia over the last few years. Madatyan is trying to pose as a “secret” nominee of the ruling coalition. He was denied the certificate in conformity with the law: after he was charged with an attempted crime against Armenian top-officials in 2004, he was on the list of wanteds and lived in Russia for a long period. The question is: who will lay hands on the “fatty” constituency if neither Pashinyan nor Madatyan is finally registered as a candidate. Did the Armenian authorities decide to back the political scientist Hamayak Hovhannisyan, who, under the circumstances, is the only acceptable parliamentary candidate? Since Armenia gained independence, Hamayak Hovhannisyan has managed to join and leave several political parties, and is now highly critical of the authorities. It seems absurd, but everything is possible in Armenia’s political life.

The Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) led by the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, which is part of the ruling coalition, disproved the rumors about possible resignation of RA Minister of Labor Social Security Gevorg Petrosyan. The PAP representative Aram Safaryan said that the rumors are “somebody’s order.” “We are satisfied with our Minister’s work, and the party has not discussed the issue of his resignation,” Safaryan told NEWS.am. Some media outlets have reported this week that PAP intends to replace Gevorgyan.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

The major developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process have taken place under the sign of an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting scheduled for late November. The negotiation process seriously intensified after the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ recent visit to the region. A number of facts confirm this, the international mediators’ visit to the region scheduled for mid-November being one of them.

In this context, interesting statements were made in Baku. The main aim behind the stock phrases is preparing the Azerbaijani society for inevitable concessions after many years of militant rhetoric, as the conflict is impossible to settle otherwise. Convinced of the futile attempts to get new concessions from the Armenian side, official Baku, pressured by international mediators, had to think of what Azerbaijan has to propose in exchange for the most substantial, and painful, concessions outlined by the Armenian authorities.

As a result, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov made a plain statement on the intensification of negotiations. Singing the same old song about Azerbaijan’s demands — “the earliest possible withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territories” – the top-ranking official “explained the point” of negotiations. After a long talk about the need for returning the territories round Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, Mamedyarov dwelt on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although he once again stated Azerbaijan’s readiness to grant Nagorno-Karabakh the highest degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan’s borders, Minister Mamedyarov admitted the fact that it is a central issue of the negotiations. Speaking of the highest status of Nagorno-Karabakh is utterly absurd, as a referendum on independence was held in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), and the overwhelming majority of the population supported the idea.

It is obvious that the negotiators are currently disputing over the terms and form of referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status, which is provided for by the Madrid Principles referred to by the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities, as well as by the international mediators. In this context, Minister Mamedyarov’s latest statements are clear: being well aware of their inevitable consent to the referendum (which is a necessary condition for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the security zone round Nagorno-Karabakh), the Azeri authorities are trying to “play false” by focusing attention on official Yerevan’s concessions and doing their best to delay the plebiscite.

Incidentally, the political scientist Rasim Musabekov, who is close to the Aliyev clan, has admitted the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh’s status is a central issue of the negotiation process. He proved even franker than Mamedyarov by actually urging the Azerbaijani public to focus its attention on the first stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, namely, a phased return of the regions round the NKR, which scenario is ruled out unless an agreement on the terms and form of referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status is reached.

As regards the Armenian-Turkish protocols and their ratification by the two Parliaments, no changes have taken place “on the front.” Both in Ankara and in Yerevan, the documents “got stuck” at the stage of what is known as “interagency endorsement.” In Armenia, the protocols have not yet reached the Constitutional Court, which is to confirm their constitutionality, whereupon they can be submitted to the RA Parliament for ratification. A similar situation has developed in Turkey: the protocols at held up at the Foreign Affairs Committee. When the documents will be submitted to the Turkish Parliament for ratification is unknown. The sides seem to be waiting for something…

In any case, they have so far held a pompous and “thrilling” signing ceremony of the protocols, with no actual steps to put them into practice being taken.

Despite the “relative stagnation” in the Armenia-Turkey normalization process, which is the result of official Ankara’s unwillingness to “turn a stone deaf ear” to the howl in Baku, irreversible processes seem to be going on inside Turkish society. A poll conducted by the NTV Company showed that most that most Turks want Hayko Cepkin, a Turkish musician of Armenian descent, to represent Turkey at Eurovision-2010 — 16% of the 10,000 respondents spoke in his favor.

Economy and social life

This week the Armenian society has been shocked by reports on swine flu cases in the country. The real number of patients must be much higher, but the RA Ministry of Health provides information “in scraps” to prevent panic. In any case, the fact is that the contradictory statements on the vaccine made by officials and specialists may only add to the population’s concern.

The RA Government has approved a concept of digitizing the broadcasting. At its sitting the cabinet instructed the interagency commission to work out a schedule of public discussions and submit it to the Government within a month. The Government also approved a plan of developing an anti-hail system in 2010-2011. The anti-hail systems will first of all be installed in Aragatsotn, Ararat, Armavir, Kotayk, Lori and Shirak. RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that about 1bn AMD (U.S. $2.6m dollars) will be allocated for this purpose.

The water level of Lake Sevan, which is currently 1,899 meters is expected to rise by 4.6 meters by 2013. Chairman of the Commission for Lake Sevan Vladimir Movsisyan said that over 40% of the lake’s water reserves have been used for irrigation and energy generation since 1993, and steps to preserve the ecosystem are being made now. “The water level had risen by 45 cm by January 1, 2009, as compared with the corresponding date last year. By January 1, 2010, it is expected to rise by 31 cm,” Movsisyan said. He also reported that cleaning work on 499 hectares of the coastal zone has been carried out this year. Movsisyan also pointed out the negative consequences of the raising of water level. By preliminary estimates, 1,697 water-front constructions – with only 481 of them being legal — will be inundated. Also, the water will cover four pumping stations and 15km of roads. Eighteen kilometer-long power transmission lines, 19km of gas pipelines and about 2,800 hectares of forests will be flooded as well.

Seven old people’s homes – four government-financed and three privately-owned ones – are working in Armenia, Anahit Gevorgyan of the RA Ministry of Labor and Social Security told NEWS.am.

She reported that 1,100 old people are currently in charge of the institutions, with 1,010 of them in government-financed and only 90 in privately-owned ones in Vanadzor, Gyumri and Abovyan. The daily allowance for one person is 2,860 AMD (less than U.S. $8), with 1,160 AMD of this amount provided for food. The situation is a little ‘better" at the Vanadzor mental home – 5,000 AMD per patient.

Gevorgyan said that the “charges’” relatives can hardly help them. Rather, it is grave social conditions that force people to send their old parents to nursing homes. Gevorgyan said not a single instance of children taking their parents back home has been registered over the last 20 years.