“Jaga, a taxi driver, roams the streets of Baku every night, fighting for every fare with other self-appointed cabbies,” Business Week analyst Maciel Falkowski reports. “In his spare time he visits his friend Ludmila in a neighboring block of flats or drinks vodka with his buddies, smoking marijuana and cheap cigarettes under the portraits of the ancient Shia imams Ali and Hussein that hang on the walls. They chat about the good old Soviet times, recalling their past Armenian neighbors, and mocking the TV news in which President Ilham Aliev once again promises to recapture Karabakh from the Armenians,” the source says.

“They lie and deceive us every day,” said Ramiz, who along with Jaga's two other friends helps build mobile phone towers. “It's all about money. You have to pay the doctors, clerks, police. Where am I supposed to get the money for all the bribes? Prices keep rising, but our salaries don't.”

“The whole world was already struggling with the crisis, but our government still claimed that it had miraculously bypassed Azerbaijan thanks to the weak integration of the Azerbaijani economy with the global market,” said Hikmet Hajizade, director of the FAR Center for Political and Economic Research in Baku. “It wasn't until oil prices dramatically fell and Baku's construction sites came to a standstill that the government officially admitted that there was something to it,” the weekly informs.

“The crisis is hitting ordinary people increasingly hard. Many factories have stopped production, the construction industry is plagued with enormous problems, wages are paid only after long delays, and, although down from about 20 percent in 2008, inflation is expected to remain troublesome this year, according to the IMF. Compared with Georgia and Armenia, where opposition demonstrations and other destabilizing events happen relatively often, Azerbaijan seems stable. The country saw the last turbulent moments in 2003, when the authorities put down opposition protests staged after rigged presidential elections. But the lack of visible signs of potential destabilization in Azerbaijan is misleading,” the source reads.

"Beliefs about Azerbaijan's internal stability are based on the common conviction that Aliyev's position is strong and that he sets the rules and makes most important decisions independently, especially those on foreign policy and the oil industry. That he is like his father, Heidar, president from 1993 to 2003, a cunning and experienced player whom officials simply feared. But when speaking privately, Azerbaijani experts question the position of Aliyev Jr. “Ilham is an indecisive man who fears contacts with journalists, avoids speaking in public, and has a weakness for risk,” commented a well-known Azerbaijani political scientist speaking on condition of anonymity. “He has proved during his first term in office that he is a gifted and clever politician, but cannot equal his father as far as political games are concerned,” the weekly says.

“Ilham differs from his father in almost everything. He has a different character, personal and political experience. Heidar was a product of the KGB and the leader of a strong clan from Nakhichevan. By contrast, Ilham studied at the prestigious Moscow University and has much closer ties to Baku's intellectual elite and the community of his Baku-born wife, Mehriban.”

According to the source, “adding to the president's weakness is the growing dissatisfaction of the elites with the rule of two clans: the Nakhichevan clan and one that groups Azerbaijanis originally from Armenia (the so-called Eraz – from the Russian phrase erevanskie azerbaidjantsy meaning Yerevan Azerbaijanis), who have dominated the political life of Azerbaijan and whose members hold almost all offices in the central and regional administrations. &‘The conflicts and tensions within the ruling elites, including those between the Nakhichevanis and the Eraz, are another threat. They are fueled by the rivalry over the division of oil money,’ said Leyla Aliyeva of the Center for National and International Studies.

Among the major threats to Azerbaijan's internal stability are massive corruption, nepotism, and the dependence of the economy on energy resources. No country struggling with such problems can be considered securely stable.

”The growing influence of Islam, including its radical versions, could also help destabilize the internal situation. As recently as a few years ago everyone would stare at a woman dressed in a hijab, whereas today there are so many that nobody seems to pay attention. “Only Islam can save Azerbaijan from the influence of the rotten West,” said Mukhtar, a student at the State Oil Academy. “The role of Islam in Azerbaijan's public life should be stronger, and the government should cooperate not only with the U.S., but also with Muslim countries.” Many Azerbaijanis perceive the West as a cynical player that calls for democratization but values Azerbaijani oil more," the weekly outlines.