Domestic policy

The main political event this week has been the 10^th anniversary of the most appalling terrorist act in the history of independent Armenia. On October 27, 1999, a group of terrorists burst into the assembly hall of the RA Parliament and, in the presence of numerous journalists, fired point-blank at Speaker of the RA National Assembly Karen Demirchyan, Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan and six other political figures. Thus the terrorists beheaded the Unity bloc, which had won the elections just a few months before, as well as the RA Parliament and Government. Within a few moments the then President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan became absolute ruler over the country. Ten years have passed, but the “October 27 factor” still plays an important role in Armenia’s domestic political life. Although the terrorists were sentenced to life imprisonment, and the authorities are sure that the crime was thoroughly investigated, the Opposition has been insisting that the terrorist act had been masterminded. During last year’s presidential campaign, the political opponents were exploiting the “October 27 factor.” In particular, Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who resumed his political activities, publicly laid the responsibility on the authorities. Back in October 1999, he was strongly against the army’s interference in political affairs thereby actually supporting Robert Kocharyan, who found himself in an extremely critical situation. At present, however, on the eve of the 10^th anniversary of the tragedy, the Armenian National Congress led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan made the most strongly worded statement over this period, actually charging Robert Kocharyan with direct complicity in that crime. The ANC also placed great responsibility on Serzh Sargsyan, who was then Head of the RA special services. Commemorations have taken place in memory of the victims at their graves and at the monument within the precincts of the RA Parliament. Attending the commemorations were both the Armenian top-officials and the Opposition leaders, including the victims’ relatives: Stepan Demirchyan, son of Karen Demirchyan and Chairman of the People’s Party of Armenia, and Aram Sargsyan, brother of Vazgen Sargsyan and Chairman of the Political Council of the Republic Party.

The trial of Editor-in-Chief of the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper Nikol Pahshinyan continued this week. He is charged with having organized riots during last year’s post-election processes and with having offered resistance to a policeman on October 23, 2007. Over 40 witnesses in the case are testifying in court. According to the “fine” tradition of all the trial of Opposition members over the last year and a half, the witnesses for the prosecution are giving contradictory testimonies, which often run counter to elementary logic. For example, one standing on the opposite side of the street in the dark could see Pashinyan striking the policeman with his leg. Hundreds of Opposition members regularly gather in front of the Shengavit minor court. They have regular clashes with policemen, which, on the one hand, are the result of the demonstrators’ strongly worded anti-government statements and banners with similar slogans, and, on the other hand, of some policemen’s aggressive behavior, which became “an allergen” for participants in mass actions long ago.

Late this week the ANC sprung a surprise by nominating Nikol Pashinyan at the by-elections to the RA Parliament in Election District #10 in Yerevan. According to the law, Pashinyan can run for Parliament if no court verdict has been returned on him and come into force. At present, the authorities are facing a dilemma: either speeding up the trial or witnessing inevitable intensification of the Opposition’s activities as a result of the forces rallying round Pashinyan. The first is rather problematic with more than 40 witnesses involved in the case. In the second case, signs of consolidation can already be observed: on Friday evening the Republic Party, which forms part of the ANC, reported that Suren Surenyan, Political Council member, has refused to accept his nomination.

The Prosperous Armenia Party led by the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan can fulfill its election pledges provided the absolute majority of the population supports it, stated Khachik Galstyan, Spokesman for Gagik Tsarukyan. According to him, the party’s nominee received over 23% of votes at the municipal elections. “If the present Mayor takes the wrong course in the city’s development, the Prosperous Armenia Party cannot bear maximal responsibility. The same situation was after the parliamentary elections: although the Prosperous Armenia Party is the second largest political force, it received only 15% of votes. So this is its share of responsibility for the implemented programs,” Galstyan said. Responding to a question as to why the party does not secede from the ruling coalition, Galstyan said that being coalition member enhances the party’s chances to accomplish the tasks. He also pointed out that the Armenian political forces will intensify their activities next year to start preparing for the 2012 parliamentary elections. New formats and political poles can be expected to form then.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

The “downward tendency” in the process of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols is getting stronger. Both the sides seem to be delaying the ratification after a rather active dialogue that ended in the signing of protocols. We have to understand the reasons for some delay in the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border and establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations, which was to take place within two months after the protocols were signed.

After the protocols were submitted to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey on October 21 they were “held up” at one of the committees to be resubmitted to the Presidium of the Turkish Parliament. The Presidium is to submit the protocols to the Turkish Parliament for ratification. The situation is no better in Armenia. “Relevant agencies” are discussing the protocols now. Thereafter they will be submitted to the RA Constitutional Court, which is to confirm their constitutionality. After that the RA National Assembly will consider the issue of ratifying them. It is noteworthy that most local and international experts are of the unanimous opinion that both the Parliaments will successfully ratify the protocols.

In this context one can conclude that the reason for the Armenia-Turkey normalization process is not only the intensifying geopolitical changes in the region, which has never been denied, but also the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Despite the repeated statements that the two processes are not immediately linked, the “lower speed” at the “final stretch” suggests the following conclusion: the Armenia-Turkey normalization process has reached the highest extent possible with no fundamental changes in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

Further warlike statements have been heard from Baku this week. The Armenian side gave adequate responses. International mediators and key geopolitical players got Armenia to show – directly or indirectly — its readiness to maximum possible concessions thereby stalemating themselves. While the Armenian authorities are consistently preparing the public for painful concessions, their Azeri counterparts have got entangled in their own web of lies and deception, the one they have been weaving for many years. As a result, everybody sees the Azeri mass media, controlled by President Ilham Aliyev’s administration, pursuing contradictory information policy thereby throwing the confused society into even greater confusion. Now they let bits of information on the necessity to agree to the return of five “occupied” regions now they howl about the “Dashnak-Communist yoke” the Turkish army helped Azerbaijan to throw off, and so on. The latest example is the “funereal” reports by the Baku TV channels about “the occupation of the strategically important Zangelan region by Armenian invaders.” It is no problem that the Azeri TV channels could hardly count 16 or 17 years from October 29, 1993. But the question is: how well does the biased interpretation of the reasons for Armenian troops’ entry to the region fit the preparation of the public for a peaceful settlement? We could hear once more that, during the “occupation”, 188 defenders of the region became “shahids”, heroes in the Azeri manner. As regards numerous victims among the civil population in Kapan, Armenia, as a result of long-lasting shelling from Zangelan, official Baku is “modestly” silent.

There is growing influence of the geopolitical changes in the region on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status quo. The much warmer relations between Turkey and Iran are of fundamental importance. Although at his press conference Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan stated Turkey has no intention to act as mediator between Iran and the West, there is no doubt Ankara is playing this role. A new agreement on the supply of Iranian gas to Turkey and further to Europe is within the framework of the arm-twisting policy implemented by official Baku, which is torpedoing the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process by holding a non-constructive position. It is difficult, however, to imagine a situation when a major regional conflict remains frozen amid radical geopolitical changes in the region. This not only runs counter to the interests of key geopolitical players, which are nearing a consensus on the key political issues, but also is a serious impediment to further implementation of major international energy projects.

So it is no wonder that the international mediators should be expected to intensify their efforts to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict next month. Much depends on the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ forthcoming visit to the region. Which of the events will be the first to occur – the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols by the two Parliaments to be followed by a framework agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or vice versa? It will be clear within the next few weeks. The fact is that there remains the only state that is capable of frustrating all the regional processes thereby turning into a rogue nation. In the near future we will be able to see whether the geopolitical players will allow Azerbaijan to do it.

Economy and social life

This week the Armenian Parliament has adopted, in the third reading, the bill on construction of a new nuclear power unit in Armenia. Introducing the bill, RA Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan said that the document provides for the construction of a power unit or units with a total capacity of 1.2MW and operating life of 60 years. The project is estimated at U.S. $4.5bn. Movsisyan pointed out that the construction project is of special importance for Armenia — the neighboring states have energy deficit, while Armenia is the only regional country generating electric energy not only for domestic needs, but also for exports. President of the Rostom Corporation Sergey Kiriyenko, who was on a visit to Yerevan, stated the corporation’s readiness to participate in the construction project.

Iran plans to increase its gas exports to Armenia five-fold in the near future. The information is reliable, as it was the IRNA agency that reported it, referring to a local official. “We plan to increase daily gas exports from 2m to 10m cubic meters,” the official said. Gazprombank (Russia) and the ArmRosgasprom CJSC signed a 7-year agreement on a U.S. $40m credit line. ArmRosgasprom reported it is one more step in carrying out Gazprombank’s strategic task of developing effective cooperation with the Armenian fuel-energy complex.

“Emigration from Armenia has reached 20.3%. Most of the emigrants, 72.8%, prefer Europe,” Irina Davtyan, Deputy Head of the Migration Agency, stated at the UN Office in Yerevan. According to her report entitled “Overcoming obstacles: human migration and development”, 2/3 of Armenian emigrants prefer Russia, and 9% the other of the CIS member-states.

A 67% decrease in diamond exports has been registered in Armenia this January-September as compared with the corresponding period last year. The RA Customs Service reports that a total of 60,875 carats of diamonds were exported this January-September. Thus, Armenia’s diamonds exports decreased by U.S. $70m as compared with the corresponding period last year. Diamond exports totaled U.S. $39.1m this January-September against U.S. $109m (21,200 carats) last January-September.