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What sets the capital city of Yerevan's protests apart is the fact that there are neither political demands nor calls for a change in the country's foreign policy, Agnia Grigas writes in an article published in the blog The Hill.

According to her, while these protests do not mark a shift in Armenian-Russian relations, they signal the maturing of civil society.  The author writes that any political shift in Yerevan will certainly be closely monitored by Moscow, but in comparison to Ukraine, Armenia remains “highly vulnerable in its region and neither its government nor civil society is likely to part ways with Moscow in the near term.”

The protests in Yerevan are, according to Grigas, very much part tied to the poor state of the Armenian economy, largely dominated by Russia, which itself is also experiencing an economic downturn. The author reminds that Russia has been the leading investor in Armenia via such companies like ArmRosGasProm, Russian Railways, telecom operators MTS and Beeline, as well as leading Russian banks and insurance companies. “Russia has also successfully leveraged Armenia's economic and energy vulnerability for its own gain,” she writes.

Similarly to Ukraine, Armenia has faced pressure from Moscow when it sought closer ties to the EU. “Should the U.S. and EU be interested in challenging Russian influence and liberating Armenians from its coercive political stratagems, investments in the Armenian energy sector could be the best place to start.” the author notes, reminding of the purchase by U.S. company ContourGlobal of Armenia's HPP Vorotan.

According to the analyst, the protests in Yerevan are indicative of the strengthening Armenian civil society, but the “fear of both Armenian government crackdown and reprisals from Moscow have kept the protestors away from wider political or foreign policy agenda.”

Protests in Yerevan raised the question of whether or not tensions could escalate as they did in Ukraine and what role Russia would play in the events going forward. According to the author, issuance of Russian passports to Armenians and the Gyumri military base are risk factors that could potentially serve as a pretext for Moscow's interference in Armenia's internal affairs.

Nevertheless, the author finds that it is unlikely that Moscow would let Yerevan drift away easily from its sphere of influence.  “In addition to investment in the energy sector, if the U.S. and the EU would help Armenia to finally reconcile with Azerbaijan and Turkey, it would potentially eliminate Yerevan's security dilemma and the resulting military dependence on Russia. In addition to investment in the energy sector, if the U.S. and the EU would help Armenia to finally reconcile with Azerbaijan and Turkey, it would potentially eliminate Yerevan's security dilemma and the resulting military dependence on Russia,” she writes. 

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