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Armenian News - NEWS.am presents the abridged version of the article by Zhanna Andreasyan, Ph.D., lecturer in sociology at Yerevan State University, and Georgi Derluguian,  professor of sociology at New York University Abu Dhabi, published in The Washington Post:  

“Armenia, a small traditionally pro-Russian former Soviet republic, has just experienced a spectacular eruption of mass protests. On the surface, it was against a fairly minor increase in electricity rates. In Moscow, however, conservative journalists sounded alarms, alleging that America was attempting another “regime change” in Russia’s underbelly.

The Armenian history of victimhood matters in the classical sense of Durkheimian theory: External conflict fosters cohesion within social groups. Extraordinary conflict, like the memories of genocidal extermination, fosters extraordinary cohesion. This helps explain why, after the first clash had backfired so badly, Armenian authorities carefully avoided using force against fellow Armenians. The protest movement thus obtained its window of political opportunity.

Here the trajectory of Armenian protest diverged from the Ukrainian revolution earlier last year. The small group that tried to unfurl European Union flags, as had happened in the Ukrainian Euromaidan a year earlier, was heckled and expelled from the crowd. While the government sought to avoid violence, the protesters insisted that they had no political agenda. The authorities on their side recognized the protest as peaceful and purely social.

The very success of a leaderless movement, however, at a certain point threatened to become its own undoing. Who or what would institutionalize the protest’s achievements? More simply, who would declare victory and end the rally? And so the protest dragged on and on, gradually losing its emotional energy.

On June 27, Sarkisian announced a face-saving compromise: the Armenian state budget would absorb the price increase while an independent commission involving representatives from the protesters could audit the economic reasoning behind the new energy tariffs.

It often happens in contentious politics that both sides win something and lose something. It may take a while before the score becomes really known. The Armenian government’s incumbents won, at least in the short run. They survived the challenge and showed their backers in Moscow that they could stay in charge without any violence.

The protesters, despite their short-lived glory followed by the split, might have won in the longer run. It remains to be seen what political forms this movement might assume. Much will depend on further learning among the young Armenian activists. This is not going to be easy. The movement grew to a scale at which it will have to figure out its own politics.

However, it is now quite certain that a new political generation has come of age. That movement makes the next elections in Armenia seem less predictable than only a month ago.”

 

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This text available in   Հայերեն and Русский
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