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March 29
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Following the meeting in Saint Petersburg, presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia decided to increase the number of OSCE observers on the Line of Contact between the troops. This is the only concrete achievement. On all the other issues of Karabakh conflict settlement we see the well-known vague “leaders achieved understanding” and “confirmed the wish to find a peaceful way to the settlement”. If there is another real achievement, it is kept secret, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

The sides came up with their expectations at the meeting initiated by Vladimir Putin. Baku requires the withdrawal of the Armenian units from the so-called buffer zone round the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR/Artsakh), hoping that Moscow will press on its strategic ally. Yerevan requires guarantees that the military actions will not be resumed, also hoping for the firm backing from Moscow. The Armenian side is ready to consider handing regions from the buffer zone in the context of recognizing the NKR sovereignty. That’s all. Stalemate.

Can the agreement to increase the observers be considered as a significant achievement? Not likely. The observers do not hinder the local skirmish, which in fact does not stop, let alone the resumption of war. They can’t be placed all along the Line of Contact in a 24-hour regime. Let alone, all along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border per se.

Was a breakthrough to be expected at Saint Petersburg meeting? No either. The positions of the sides are rather far, regardless of the meaningful remarks of the OSCE Minsk Group (MG) mediators. How long does the Palestinian-Israeli conflict last? The Cypriot one? No shooting is already good.

The Azerbaijani side stresses that they cannot wait for the solution of the conflict as long as the others, and won’t wait. First, exhaustion of patience yielded no positive results in Baku in early April, causing only losses and sorrow to the families of those dead. The same was true for the opposite side. Second, another such attack on the Armenian positions in conditions of principled impossibility of blitzkrieg will already result not only in harsh criticism from the global political centers, but can also launch the process of recognizing the NKR sovereignty.   

Azerbaijan should apparently gain self-restraint, hold talks and gradually overcome the situation in its favor. The time is in its favor. This isn’t a reservation. This is the case today.  

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