If the Protocols on establishing Turkish-Armenian diplomatic relations are ratified by the two states' Parliaments, some revisions to the Nabucco project may be made, and the European Union (EU) may demand that the gas pipeline run through Armenia, not Georgia, the Komersant daily reports, referring to Sabit Bagirov, the Head of the Baku Center for Economic and Political Research.
An article entitled “Armenia pushed forward to Nabucco”, the daily refers to Sinan O?an, President of the Turkish Center for International Relations & Strategic Analysis, who considers such a scenario realistic.
“During the signing ceremony of the Protocol on the preliminary agreement on establishing diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan made it clear that his country was ready to participate in all the energy projects in the South Caucasus. Although he did not name Nabucco, everyone understood what he meant,” O?an said. He pointed out that the United States and EU want to specify the Nabucco pipeline route. So Ankara hastened to prepare a Protocol on establishing diplomatic relations.
“It is yet early to make official statements. However, a year ago, when the war broke out in Georgia, I forecast that the Nabucco pipeline would run from Azerbaijan to Turkey through Armenia. Our Foreign Minister confirmed that was a good idea,” the Turkish expert said.
Commenting of the statement, Karen Karapetyan, Board Chairman, Armrosgazprom, told Komersant that it is only the development of energy projects in the Transcaucasus that is in question now, and Nabucco is not among them yet. He said that the sides are discussing the possibility of supplying Russian gas to Turkey, with Iranian gas to be supplied to Armenian electric power stations in exchange for Armenian electric energy. The newspaper also quotes Gazprom President Alexey Miller, who considers Iranian-Turkish swaps possible. Should the Armenian-Turkish border be reopened, the supply may be organized through Armenia.
The author points out that Azerbaijan, which is regarded as a resource base for the Nabucco project, is a major hindrance to turning Armenia into a transit country. “The Azerbaijani authorities will never agree to the transit of Azerbaijani gas through Armenia without a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem that would be acceptable for them. Azerbaijan will never allow its raw stock to be transported through Armenia as long as its territories remain occupied and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict unsettled,” Bagirov said.
NEW.am reported earlier that the EU, which rendered great assistance to Armenia and Turkey in reaching an agreement, wants the planned Nabucco natural gas pipeline to run through Armenia, not Georgia, as a transit country. The normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations may be accompanied by changes in the regional energy balance. Armenia was announced a prospective participant in the Nabucco project.
