FAO’s current forecast for global grain production in 2026 stands at 2.983 billion tonnes. According to the organization’s July review, this means the volume will be 1.9% below the historic peak of 2025, but will nevertheless become the second-largest on record, Agroexport reports. The forecast for global wheat production has been lowered to 806.5 million tonnes, which is 4.3% less than the previous year’s level, “as the latest data from Australia indicate that the El Niño phenomenon will lead to production falling below the five-year average.”

Global rice production is expected to decline by 1.8%. At the same time, the estimate for wheat, corn, and barley trade volumes in 2025/26 has been raised due to “an acceleration in trade at the end of the season.” In 2026/27, global wheat trade is expected to decrease by 9.8 million tonnes (or 4.7%), barley by 7 million tonnes (-18.8%), while corn is expected to increase by 5 million tonnes (+2.5%).