Russian authorities are creating the legal and organizational framework for the possible announcement of a new mobilization and the imposition of martial law, while simultaneously preparing for mass unrest. This is the conclusion reached by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts note that the State Duma has passed a law allowing citizens with unexpunged criminal records, including those convicted of drug smuggling and participation in organized criminal groups, to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense during an official mobilization period. Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin said this would expand the pool of people eligible for military service and simplify recruitment for the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian National Guard has prepared amendments to civil defense regulations, adding the protection of the population from “dangers” arising during mobilization, martial law, and wartime, as well as expanding powers related to the evacuation of military personnel.

According to ISW, these measures indicate the Kremlin’s systematic preparation for a possible mobilization, which remains highly unpopular in Russian society. In November 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing reservists to be sent to combat zones without declaring mobilization. Analysts believe the Kremlin may use this mechanism to conduct partial call-ups in stages. At the same time, the final decision still depends personally on Putin and his assessment of the situation at the front and the domestic political climate. ISW emphasizes that it is still impossible to say whether he will decide on mobilization in the near future and in what form it might take.

Talk of a new mobilization has intensified amid the Russian army’s growing losses. According to Western intelligence estimates, by mid-2026 the cumulative losses of Russian forces had reached 1.4 million killed and wounded, while the pace of contract recruitment had ceased to compensate for the attrition. European officials, meanwhile, do not rule out a mobilization announcement after the September State Duma elections if the high level of losses persists.

Pro-war Telegram channels cite October as a possible timeframe and estimate the potential scale of the call-up at 1.2 million people. The Ministry of Defense, for its part, has begun preparing training grounds to receive new recruits. Reuters sources close to the Kremlin report that Putin is preparing for a further escalation of the war against Ukraine.