Past daily of Armenia writes as follows, in particular: In the political agenda being formed under the guise of normalizing economic relations, the possible opening of borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the restoration of regional communications, the existence of trade ties is often presented as evidence of progress in relations. The logic seems simple: if previously there was almost no legal trade between the two countries but now there are already facts of import of goods, then, it seems, adversarial relations are gradually transforming into economic cooperation.

This interpretation (obviously, official), however, misses an essential difference: the mere existence of trade does not yet mean balanced economic interdependence. And the trade data for 2026 show not a developed system of mutual integration, but a highly disproportionate relationship. The main direction of trade flow is from Azerbaijan to Armenia. In the opposite direction, the export of Armenian goods is either absent or has such a small amount that it is difficult to consider it as a real basis for bilateral trade relations.

(...). When the flow in only one direction prevails in the relationship, the risk of dependence gradually focuses on the importing side. This is precisely the main problem of the Armenia-Azerbaijan trade picture: the available data indicate more an asymmetric structure than the formation of mutual cooperation.

(...).

It is also important to avoid unfounded forecasts. The fact that fuel imports from Azerbaijan [to Armenia] may increase in the future does not mean that Azerbaijan will necessarily turn this relationship into an instrument of influence. But the logic of economic security is precisely here: the threat should be assessed not only when it has already manifested itself, but also at the phase when it is possible to take preventive steps. In this sense, the safest model for Armenia is not “importing as many goods as possible from Azerbaijan,” but “developing trade with Azerbaijan to the extent that it increases overall economic resilience without creating critical dependence on a single supplier.”