In the third quarter of 2026, the 12-month inflation in Armenia continued to form at a level above the target, reaching 4.4% in August, and 12-month core inflation amounted to 4.8%, the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) informed Armenian News-NEWS.am.

In the context of the persistence of regional conflicts and a certain expansion of their scope, the risks of further weakening demand in the global economy and, at the same time, increasing inflationary pressures are gradually becoming more tangible.

High investment activity in the US  and growing concerns about fiscal sustainability have formed risks towards a possible increase in long-term neutral interest rates, with corresponding effects on neutral interest rates and capital flows in developing countries.

In the eurozone and Russia, despite a modest recovery in economic growth in the second quarter, structural problems are deepening, also leading to deterioration in the medium-term growth outlook.

Energy prices have continued to form at high levels amid rising tensions in the Middle East, and the gradual reduction in accumulated stocks increases the market's vulnerability to possible new supply shocks.

In this context, the risks of further increases in policy rates by central banks of leading countries and their prolonged maintenance at high levels have become more tangible, the CBA added.