Today the resumption of war in the Karabakh conflict zone is probable as never before, Gerard Shalyan, an armed conflict and strategic relations expert, said during discussions organized by the Civilitas Foundation.

He noted that the Armenian side should be ready for a surprise attack and short-term hostilities. The expert stressed that bombing of Stepankert can be expected as well.  If he were Azerbaijani he would like to resume war, which normally reduces the problem and affords additional opportunities to the winner, he said. In this regard, the Karabakh authorities should take appropriate measures to protect the population, particularly by means of bomb shelters, as the small Karabakh nation is hardly able to bear a loss of 10,000 as war victims. According to him, hostilities will continue until Russia’s interference. It will be Russia that will deploy peacekeepers in the region. As to whether Azerbaijan, in case it succeds in occupying Karabakh, will go further to seize the Armenian region of Zangezur, which connects Armenia with Nakhchivan, he said that it is logical. Shalyan believes Azerbaijan will not be satisfied with anything less than the maximum.

Commenting on Karabakh’s self-determination, the expert noted that modern world is that of double standards. He said he is not confident that Kosovo would get independence unless the U.S. wished it to. In this context, the expert supposes, one should understand whether there are sides interested in Karabakh’s independence. On the one hand, Armenia, which has not sufficient resources, insists on independence. On the other hand, Azerbaijan, the start point of the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan oil pipeline, insists on the inviolability of borders and territorial integrity. This means interests are as important as principles. However, the conflict is frozen, which plays into Armenia’s hands and improves Karabakh’s prospects. At the current stage, Armenia’s influence on Karabakh enables Russia to control Azerbaijan and prevent it from turning to the U.S.  Thus, Moscow is trying to ‘keep hold’ of Armenia, restricting Baku’s opportunities to maneuver.