By Ivan Gharibyan

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Baku, as well as its results, was marked by new unintelligible statements by the main representatives of the Aliev clan. This time Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov decided to distinguish himself. His statement on Azerbaijan’s intention to discuss the return of Kelbajar and Lachin with the Armenian side in Astana was not at all a mere chance. Rather it was another provocation aimed at thwarting the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

Mammadyarov’s statement must have been a response to Hillary Clinton’s position. During her regional visit she reaffirmed the need for settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the basis of the Helsinki pact. She emphasized the principles of nonuse of force or threat of force thereby making it clear for the Azerbaijani President that Washington was strongly against any new provocations on the contact line organized by Azerbaijan. At that point the Aliev clan had to recall a leak about the possibility of the U.S. recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence in case Baku resumed an armed conflict. We can remember that a similar statement made by a high-ranking official of the U.S. Department of State, Tina Kaidanow, several months ago was not convincingly refuted.

The Aliev clan had nothing else to do but misrepresent Hillary Clinton’s position and go on brainwashing the public: all the TV channels took Clinton’s statement on the Helsinki pact out of context, quoting her as speaking of states’ territorial integrity alone, with her statements on the principles of nonuse of force and peoples’ right to self-determination left out. 

However, official Baku was so deeply disappointed that it had to resort to its favorite policy of blackmail. The Azerbaijani authorities have a unique quality: once they make a statement on Armenia’s attempt to thwart the negotiations, they do it themselves. This time is not an exception. Minister Mammadyarov’s statement on Azerbaijan’s intention to discuss the return of Kelbajar and Lachin with the Armenian side at the Astana meetings on July 16-17 was nothing but an attempt to prevent progress toward peace. It was, to put it mildly, a dubious – and, as usual, brazen – initiative. All the leaks about the Madrid Principles say that, at the first stage, it is the possibility of return of five of the seven regions forming the security zone round Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, a good second with Minister Mammadyarov, made a statement for the Azeri public, admitting that Kelbajar and Lachin could be in question only five years after the first stage of the peace treaty.

But there is no peace treaty at all. Moreover, official Baku’s militarist statements and uncompromising attitude diminish the prospects of such a treaty. Ilham Aliev and his clan are doing their best to strengthen the positions of the fiercest opponents of any territorial concessions in Armenia. Other contributing factors are official Baku’s refusal to admit the possibility of de jure losing Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for returned territories and military provocations on the contact line accompanied by warlike statements. Baku cannot understand time is against Azerbaijan, as its uncompromising attitude is bringing closer the day when the number of proponents of territorial concessions within the boundaries of the security zone round Nagorno-Karabakh will become a minority.

The purpose is clear to Aliyev and his clan alone. The problem is most likely the Azerbaijani authorities’ relations with the public. The country and army where corruption is rampant, more than one million Azerbaijanis trading in fruits and vegetables in dreadful conditions in Russia, lack of freedom of speech and any opportunities for opposition political activities, monuments to the “national leader” Heydar Aliyev and forced worship of the idol, as well as empty promises to “return” Nagorno-Karabakh made for years. So what will become of the “indestructible” chain of command if the Azeri authorities tell the truth to their people: Nagorno-Karabakh will never belong to Azerbaijan again? Amid the preparations for the November 7 parliamentary elections at that. If the situation does not change, Ilham Aliyev will not have to make lengthy speeches about the return of the five regions, as no one will ever think of returning them.