Armenian News – NEWS.am presents the abridged version of the article by Gayane Abrahamyan published on the website EurasiaNet.org:

“Hopes are running high in Armenia that the pending end of international sanctions against Iran, its southern neighbor, will advance strategic investment projects. But Armenian analysts caution that Russia, Tehran’s longtime regional rival, may foil Yerevan’s ambitions. ”

The prospect of lifted sanctions has investors busy making up wish lists. The sense of anticipation is especially high in Armenia, which has endured an economic blockade by its neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkey since the early 1990s. For more than 20 years, Iran has served as one of only two economic trade routes to the outside world for landlocked Armenia. A significant expansion of Armenian-Iranian trade ties could effectively break the Azeri-Turkish economic blockade.

In recent years, financing for joint Armenian-Iranian projects has run scarce. Among Yerevan’s top priorities is an estimated $3.2 billion, 470-kilometer-long railway that would run from the Iranian border into Armenia and, conceivably, onto the Black Sea ports of Armenia’s northern neighbor, Georgia.

The Armenian government for the past few years has been negotiating with potential investors, including China, which in 2014 announced a $40-billion infrastructure fund to develop links between Asia and Europe. Yerevan hopes that infrastructure development will be a priority for the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a regional economic organization that Armenia joined in 2015. 

Some Armenian experts believe that the construction of a hydropower plant on the Arax River on the Armenian-Iranian border could rank as the most feasible post-sanctions project. As yet, Moscow has expressed no objections.

But Armenian ambitions are prioritizing the Iranian-Armenian railway. The Russian-state-owned Russian Railways, though, holds a contract to manage Armenia’s railroads until 2038, and has made it clear it does not welcome competition. Prior to the announcement of the Iranian nuclear deal, Russian Railways President Vladimir Yakunin dismissed the Iran-Armenia railroad as not “productive.”

Asked to respond to Yakunin’s stance, Armenian Transportation and Communications Minister Gagik Beglarian maintained in late June that “Armenia’s position has not changed.” “The railway is of vital importance and no effort should be spared to find investors and to implement the project,” Beglarian told EurasiaNet.org. Iranian officials have not yet commented.

Still, Iranian entrepreneurs interviewed by EurasiaNet.org expressed optimism about the future. But economist Ashot Yeghiazarian, a lecturer at the Armenian State University of Economics, voiced doubts whether Armenia will be able to fully benefit from any Iranian trade opportunities. By joining the EEU, he said, Armenia “has lost the right to make independent decisions.”