The primary reason for RF President Dmitry Medvedev’s impending visit to Azerbaijan is the forthcoming parliamentary elections in the country, Aram Safaryan, Secretary of the Prosperous Armenia parliamentary faction, told NEWS.am. It is obvious that the ruling party, Yeni Azerbaijan, will gain a decisive victory.

Safaryan believes official Baku will take advantage of the Russian leader’s visit to demonstrate the level of Russian-Azerbaijani strategic partnership. “I do not think that the anti-Russian sentiments in Azerbaijan will influence the general atmosphere, whereupon the two states will raise the level of their strategic partnership,” Safaryan said.

Among the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairing countries, Russia has the greatest influence over the South Caucasus and enormous potential for influencing both Armenia and Azerbaijan. “Russia will take advantage of its status to intensify its involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process,” Safaryan said. On the other hand, Russia will not make any concrete steps without consulting France and the USA. Safaryan is sure that the mediators will be more active after the summer holidays.

“After the Azerbaijani President left the Medvedev-Aliev-Sargsyan meeting without giving a clear answer, Baku must take clear and consistent steps to settle the matter. If they do not, the will feel the consequences throughout the period of intensified negotiations,” Safaryan said.

As to the possibility of Azerbaijan’s passing a vote of no confidence in the OSCE Minsk Group and trying to change the format of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, Safaryan said that it would be a major blunder on its part. “I think the negotiations will continue within the OSCE Minsk Group, as Azerbaijan will set the OSCE against itself if it tries to walk out of the negotiations. Azerbaijan will not dare to,” he said.

Rauf Rajabov, Editor-in-Chief of the 3rd View information-analytic agency, responding to a question concerning the expectations about the Russian President’s visit to Azerbaijan, and possible agreements, said the expectations are not so great.

“Both Baku and Moscow are aware of this. In this context we should consider RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement that the signing of an agreement on the state border, as well as an agreement on rational use of the water resources of the Samur River, is the main issue on the visit agenda. Let us call them ‘agreements by tradition’,” he said.

According to Rajabov, there are no “breakthrough” agreements - first of all ones in Russia’s interests - similar to the ones signed in Yerevan on the threshold of the OSCE Summit this August. The expert believes that emphasis will be placed on energy issues during the visit.

“In 2012 the term of Russian lease of the Gabalin radar station will expire. The Kremlin seeks to prolong the term and prevent the transfer of the radar station to NATO or the USA. Also, Russia is concerned with purchasing all the gas from the Azerbaijan-based Shah-Deniz gas field to impede the Nabucco project, which is an actual rival to the Russian South Stream project,” he said.

The positions of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are decisive for the fate of the South Corridor. “There arises a reasonable question: where are Azerbaijan’s geopolitical and geoeconomic interests? Azerbaijan drew the most important lesson the Caucasus was taught in Yerevan: contracts and agreements must meet both sides’ long-term interests rather than be ‘situational’ ones. We should remember that the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus will change. It is an axiom,” Rajabov said.

As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, he is sure a political settlement of the conflict will be among the priority topics of Azerbaijani-Russian consultations. “On the one hand Russia is one of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs. On other hand it is carrying out work to improve Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. True, during the six Armenian-Azerbaijani-Russian presidential meetings only the Meiendorf declaration was signed – this one is ‘by tradition’ as well.

It should be admitted that the recent months have seen a change in both the negotiations over Nagorno-Karabakh and politico-military balance in the South Caucasus, the expert said.

“In the course of time Russia is losing its status of an independent and impartial mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process under the OSCE Minsk Group’s auspices. So the present state of the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, as well as the situation in the South Caucasus, will be a priority issue of the Baku discussions on September 2-3,” Rauf Rajabov said.