“I do not expect any impressive results from the trilateral presidential meeting. On the other hand, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents must meet and discuss issues. Such meetings are an alternative to unilateral meetings, growing tension and conflicts in the region,” Konstantin Zatulin, First Vice-Chairman of the Committee for the CIS and Relations with Russian Nationals Abroad, RF State Duma, and Vice-Chairman of the Armenian-Russian Commission for Parliamentary Cooperation, told NEWS.am.

It is difficult to imagine discussions along with preparations for military operations or provocations. “Unfortunately, since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict broke out we have seen such behavior. This year has seen incident which claimed human lives in the conflict zone,” Zatulin said.

“In organizing such meetings, including the ones in Russia, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pursues a certain goal. Russia feels somewhat uncomfortable – two of the CIS member-countries, Azerbaijan, which has a common border with Russia, and Armenia which is Russia’s ally, are in a permanent conflict. Russia is trying to bring the sides’ closer and find a solution to the conflict. Of course, it is up to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh to arrive at a final decision. Russia is a mediator, unwilling to appear to be on either side. Russia seeks good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia wants to build up normal relations in the region. Another matter is that each side has its own recipe and understanding of the essence of the conflict and of its consequences. I think Russia’s behavior shows it desire for an agreement, whereas an agreement largely remains unachievable,” Zatulin said.

His is concerned that the political intrigue by Turkey - when it thwarted the rapprochement with Armenia, pleading Nagorno-Karabakh problem, thereby showing its solidarity with Azerbaijan – may have been interpreted by Azerbaijan as its victory. “Azerbaijan got a swelled head. This year that country has been much more aggressive than before. I have the impression Azerbaijan is deviating from the former mutual understanding behind closed doors,” Zatulin said.

The statement made by the Russian, U.S. and French Presidents implies that Nagorno-Karabakh will gain its independence status sooner or later provided an agreement is reached. The statement also says about the regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh which, according to the mediators, must be returned. “The point is that at least the Lachin corridor is not among the three regions. That is, it means that the fate of the corridor, as well as of entire Karabakh, is quite different than that intended for the Azeri regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, which are currently under Nagorno-Karabakh troops’ control. That is, the mediators see the difference Azerbaijan does not see. Azerbaijan is officially stating they all are Azerbaijani territories, sovereign Azerbaijan – nothing else. However, it is not pragmatic, as, in this case, the only way is war and victory,” Zatulin said.

However, resuming hostilities has so far been an unacceptable way for both Armenia and mediators, and, which is the most important, for Azerbaijan. Another war will certainly be a tremendous shock for the country. Azerbaijan underwent a number of upheavals during the Karabakh war, the country’s economic situation worsened. Reverting to the idea of resuming hostilities would be tantamount to running the risk of losing power for the Azerbaijani authorities. On the other hand, they hope the international community will be impressed by their militant rhetoric and border incidents.

“After the trilateral presidential meeting, the Azerbaijani media – in the context of the forthcoming parliamentary elections - will make comments. First, it has been an effective and promising meeting: on the threshold of elections it is supposed to attract public attention to the ruling forces’ activities and improve their chances for victory. Second, arousing nationalistic sentiments by aggressive statements on Armenia’s being unready for anything and the need for Azerbaijan to prepare for victories at any cost. This is a move the ruling forces might make in their election campaign,” Zatulin said.