Any changes in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process are unlikely in 2011, Mikhail Neizhmakov, Head of the Political research center, Institute for Global Research and Social Movements (IGSO), stated in an interview with Day.az.

As regards the “global actors”, Russia and the U.S., the expert pointed out two foreign policy reasons for official Washington’s fading interest in the peace process – both of them have to do with the 2012 presidential election to be held in the U.S.

According to him, the most widely discussed peaceful settlement schemes imply concessions on Armenia’s part, which most likely implies international mediators’ pressure on the country. However, under the circumstances, the Obama Administration is unlikely to apply this tactic for fear of antagonizing the Armenian community in the U.S, Neizhmakov said.

As to Russia, the situation is opposite. This year will see parliamentary elections, and next year a presidential one. The results are quire predictable, and the authorities will not have to make serious concessions to national communities. Among the incumbent President Dmitry Medvedev’s achievements are at least minor positive changes in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. However, the situation in the South Caucasus involves Russia’s interests to a much higher extent than the U.S. interests, the expert said.  

In 2012, elections will be held in Russia, U.S. and France. The leaders of the three states will not be in the mood for dealing with regional conflicts. That is, the year 2011 is the last chance for a breakthrough in the near future. As to the international mediators’ willingness, they will have to press the conflicting parties, first of all Armenia, for the simple reason that Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the territories roundabout it, which are negotiated, are under Yerevan’s control. Also, Azerbaijan is rising in its international importance due to the prospects of its involvement in international energy projects, and it is not in the international mediators’ interests to press it hard.

However, during the election period the U.S. and French authorities will not press Armenia. “Quarreling with Yerevan, its old regional partner, is not in Russia’s interests either,” the expert said.