The current developments in Egypt will bring bearded men with guns to power, Yevgeny Satanovski, President of the Russian Institute of the Middle East, said in an interview with Armenian News-NEWS.am.

"Hosni Mubarak may be in power fort another couple of years, but he will go away. Now he is not the hero-general that replaced the assassinated Anwar El Sadat as far back as 1981. He is over 80 now," Satanovski said. He pointed out that Mubarak`s retirement will throw the country into chaos.

"A grave crisis inside the country, weak economy, discord and Islamists - all this will be exacerbated by Sudan building a dam on the Nile thereby leaving Egypt without water. The country`s population will double during the next 20 years. All the factors will cause grace consequences," the expert said. Among possible consequences are Egypt`s expansion toward the south.

According to him, Omar Suleiman, Director of the General Intelligence Directorate of Egypt, is the only person able to take power with relative stability. Satanovsky also named Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei, who has a chance to be "appointed" President of Egypt by his masters as a person with an image and experience in dealing with the West. "He can be used after the incumbent government has been overthrown by the revolutionaries. O the other hand, we should take into account that such figures do not live long," the expert said.

Satanovsky pointed out the fact of succeeding generations in the Middle East, which glaringly apparent in Egypt. "Muammar Gaddafi came to power in Libya in 1969, Ali Abdullah Saleh became Yemen leader in 1978, Hosni Mubarak came to power in Egypt in 1981. The situation is far from being calm in all the countries," he said. The military and secular regimes in the region have come to their end, and Islamists and radicals are tearing Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria asunder. "It is an explosive region with war being imminent. Also, ignoring the environmental problems will soon cause disasters," Satanovsky said.

As regards the possibility of third forces` interference in the situation in the Middle East, he said such a scenario is beyond the bounds of possibility.

Among the nations and forces that might attempt military interference are, according to him, Russia, the United States, China, NATO and India. "What about Russia? No, thanks, we have been in Afghanistan and we do not want such a mess any more. The United States? After failure in Afghanistan and Iraq and spending huge resources, it is withdrawing its troops. The U.S. will not get into another bloodbath. NATO? It proved an impotent military alliance during the Afghan and Iraqi campaigns. China and India? Why on earth they do it? China does not need resources at such a high cost. And 150,000 Muslims are living in India. It will hardly dare to interfere in any conflict unless
Pakistan is involved," Satanovsky said. Egypt, as well as all the countries that will share its fate, will have to stew in their own juice.