Half of Americans expect a civil war in the United States in the next few years. The head of the California Center for the Study of Gun Violence, Dr. Garen Wintemute, used to laugh at warnings about an impending American Civil War, calling them 'crazy talk'. Then he saw the arms sales figures, The Guardian reported.

Wintemute, who founded the California Firearm Violence Research Center, has long observed that the gun-buying craze comes in waves, often in the run-up to presidential elections. But she usually always retreated. “Then in January of 2020 gun sales took off. Just an unprecedented surge in purchasing and that surge continued,” he said. “We were aware that, contrary to prior surges, this one wasn’t ending. People are still buying guns like crazy.”

Wintemute needed answers, and they stunned him. A poll by his California Center for the Study of Gun Violence found that half of Americans expect a civil war in the United States in the next few years. One in five believe that political violence is justified in some circumstances. Also, while almost everyone said it was important for the US to remain a democracy, about 40% said it was more important to have a strong leader.

“Coupled with prior research, these findings suggest a continuing alienation from and mistrust of American democratic society and its institutions. Substantial minorities of the population endorse violence, including lethal violence, to obtain political objectives,” the report concluded.

All of a sudden, Wintemute didn't seem insane to talk about a violent civil conflict.

He notes that a large number of people who expect a civil war say it is only partly likely. But the half of the population even considering doing so reflects the decline in confidence among large numbers of Americans in a system of government criticized by Donald Trump and much of the Republican Party.

Wintemute said the surge in violent threats was exacerbated by rising arms sales. “What happens when you take a society that is increasingly fearful for its future, increasingly polarised, increasingly angry at itself, and throw a bunch of guns into the mix?” he said.