The fact that Washington and Brussels will try to use the difficult moment and create problems for Moscow in the entire perimeter of the former Union was understandable from the very beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, writes Komsomolskaya Pravda daily of Russia.

“Perhaps, in this regard, the Karabakh case is the most suitable. After the 44-day war—the war stopped solely thanks to Putin's mediation efforts—in 2020 and the deployment of Russian peacekeeping troops, peace has reigned in Karabakh, albeit loosely, but peace has prevailed. The skirmishes and incidents of various scales that took place on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia are clearly proceeding in the logic of political pressure in order to achieve results in the negotiations.

But judging by everything, a new turn in the history of the long-standing conflict is already seen in the foreseeable future.

On October 10, the so-called Washington document on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement was published in one of the Russian Telegram channels. The document is the result of the Western mediation mission and, according to various sources, it was considered acceptable by both Aliyev and Pashinyan after the negotiations in Brussels and Paris, as well as after the meeting of the foreign ministers and secretaries of the Security Councils, in Washington.

Judging by the content of the document, if it is signed, the final delimitation of the interstate borders will be carried out, and the construction of the so-called Zangezur corridor—the highway that will connect the regions of eastern Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan through the territory of Armenia—will begin. In addition, Azerbaijan shall appoint an "official representative" who shall discuss and resolve issues related to the security and rights of the Armenians of Karabakh with such a representative of the Karabakh Armenians. No status is envisioned for the Karabakh Armenians, even more so for the unrecognized NKR.

It is interesting that the publication of this document has not yet sparked any protest movement either in Armenia or Karabakh. Isn't it clear that in reality it means the complete passing of Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani jurisdiction, and the Azerbaijanis do not even hide the formality of any "official representative." Very recently, [Azerbaijani president] Ilham Aliyev again announced that the Armenians living in Karabakh are citizens of Azerbaijan, and they will be treated in accordance with the Constitution of that country. It is clear that soon there will not be any Armenians left in Karabakh.

If the current Armenian authorities agree to accept this document—our sources in the Armenian government assure that [PM Nikol] Pashinyan is sure of the need to sign it as soon as possible—, then it will become a catalyst for tectonic movement in Transcaucasia. Armenia signing peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which [i.e., Armenia] will lose Karabakh and, allegedly, thereby be freed from existential threats, will not need either the Russian military base in Gyumri or Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. It is more than clear that this is the true goal of the western intermediaries.

Will Pashinyan go for it? According to the opinion of most of the expert community in Armenia and Russia, he will do it promptly and without remorse. Before coming to power, he acted as a convinced pro-Westerner and supporter of withdrawing Armenia from EAEU. Will it cause commotion in Armenia and Karabakh? Most likely, yes. In the 2021 [snap parliamentary] elections, Pashinyan retained power with the slogans of a just world, keeping Karabakh Armenian, and strengthening the strategic alliance with Russia. The Armenian voter, whose patience and tolerance towards Pashinyan's failures seems infinite, did not give him such a mandate and can remind the prime minister of all the calamities that have happened in the past four years.

In addition, Armenians have hardly forgotten the lessons of recent history and definitely remember what can happen when you are left alone with unresolved security issues under the "honest word" of Washington,” Komsomolskaya Pravda added.