The U.S. has lowered its 2023 oil production forecast, suggesting that global crude oil markets can't rely on U.S. shale plays to build up supply fast enough to reduce high energy prices next year, Bloomberg reported.

Production is currently estimated at 12.31 million barrels per day in 2023, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Previously, next year's production was expected to surpass the record 12.315 million barrels set in 2019.

The forecast suggests that the rate of growth in U.S. shale production, one of the few sources of major new supply last year, is slowing even as oil prices hover around $90 a barrel. If this trend continues, it will deprive the global market of additional barrels to offset OPEC+ production cuts and supply disruptions due to the war in Ukraine.

The previous boom in U.S. shale production contributed to an era of relatively cheap energy costs. It added more crude oil to world markets than all of Iraq and Iran's production combined from 2012 to 2020, making the country the largest producer of both oil and gas.

But the recovery in U.S. production after Covid-19 has been dim. The EIA said production this year would average 11.83 million barrels per day. While this is the first increase in its estimate since June, it means that domestic production is still about 10% below the level seen back in February 2020, the month before the pandemic caused a collapse in demand and widespread production cuts.

U.S. shale producers cited rising costs as one reason for slow growth.