The objective reality has changed dramatically with the active support of Azerbaijan, which continues to change it, saying that the Lachin corridor—which links Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) to Armenia—will be open only for exits. Andrey Areshev, a Russian expert on South Caucasus issues, told about this to Armenian News-NEWS.am.

"This is an absolutely clear signal of departure to the population of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is an alarming symptom. We understand that Baku is creating a humanitarian crisis in Artsakh in order to stimulate the authorities of Artsakh, if not to relocate, then, as they say, to integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the economic life and activities of Azerbaijan," Areshev added.

According to him, the formal demands put forward by the so-called “environmentalists” are related to the monitoring of mines in Artsakh; that is, the confrontation for resources is added to the traditional ethno-political confrontation—and with major international participation.

Areshev noted that this directly refers to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is guarded by Russian peacekeepers, and who are forced to act or not to act due to the lack of a written mandate.

The expert now considers the possible deployment of peacekeepers under the UN flag completely unrealistic, as it would require agreement, including from Azerbaijan. 

"We realize that there will be no such agreement. It is necessary to try to work towards the creation of mechanisms that are designed to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Artsakh. The insufficiently active position of the Armenian side is a serious obstacle," the political scientist emphasized.

He drew attention to Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan's emphasis on the need for contacts between Artsakh and Azerbaijan, although in the current conditions it is not so clear how these contacts should be implemented, as well as to some impulses directed at the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh, to which the latter’s state minister, Ruben Vardayan, responded.

According to Areshev, this only confirms the line formulated by Pashinyan, and which has been marked for a long time and is related to staying away from any issue of ensuring the security of Artsakh.

"The key security issue is to justify the Russian peacekeepers, who are quite constrained in their actions, and the other says that if Russia is not capable, then let the international peacekeeping forces come," added the analyst.

He emphasized that the previous negotiation logic within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group was violated back in 2018—and not without Pashinyan's direct participation.

"As a result, we have a radically changed situation in terms of the legal and political status of Artsakh, which was de facto recognized by Yerevan as part of Azerbaijan. For that, the Alma-Ata declaration [of 1991] is used and even read in a very unique way," concluded Areshev.