As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan stall, violent flare-ups either in Nagorno-Karabakh or on their common border are increasingly likely, even if a large-scale Azerbaijani military operation or direct Iranian involvement in the conflict remains unlikely, wrote Stratfor center analysts.

According to them, Azerbaijan's actions and Armenia's warnings are signs of increasing tension, which indicates the risk for the negotiation process.

Azerbaijan will probably resort to small-scale violations of the ceasefire, the occupation of tactically advantageous locations in Nagorno-Karabakh or along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Despite recent aggressive actions, Azerbaijan is unlikely to launch a large-scale military operation, as less costly methods may allow Baku to achieve its goals. Every time, capturing some position, the Azerbaijani forces improve their tactical positions, even if the territorial conquests de facto push the line of contact back by only a few meters, the Stratfor analysts added.

As these analysts noted, during the last deadly increasing of tension, in September 2022, the Armenian side petitioned to the CSTO, asking to restore Armenia's territorial integrity and ensure the withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops from its sovereign territory. According to the Stratfor analysts, the Russian-led organization failed to respond properly, which strengthened the negotiating leverage of the Azerbaijani government, not creating the risk of a new large-scale war with Armenia, as well as international condemnation—and possible sanctions.

The recent deployment of EU observers on the Armenian side of the border may deter Azerbaijan from a large-scale attack. It was noted that the Armenian side can extend its mandate if necessary.

In recent weeks, Armenia has made progress in normalizing relations with neighboring Turkey, which is Azerbaijan's closest ally. For Armenia and Turkey, these efforts to restore bilateral relations are a lever they can use to convince Azerbaijan not to make too many demands in the peace talks, as Baku would prefer that any steps to normalize Armenian-Turkish relations be conditioned by the ratification of an agreement to end its conflict with Armenia, the experts noted.

According to their assessment, Iran will continue its actions aimed at restraining Azerbaijan, contributing to maintaining the already high tension between the two countries. Iran is worried about Azerbaijan's repeated violations of the 2020 ceasefire, the discrediting of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the loss of confidence that Russia will remain committed to protecting Armenia from Azerbaijan's encroachments.