Europe keeps striking deals with Azerbaijan, even at the COP29 climate conference. And while it might not be Russian natural gas, Moscow is still likely to benefit, writes Politico.

"Western countries are looking to Azerbaijan to help end their reliance on Moscow’s fossil fuels, striking a string of natural gas agreements even during this year’s COP29 climate change talks.

That’s not the only irony, though: The deals could ultimately benefit Russia.

Since Moscow launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has been looking to resource-rich Azerbaijan to help replace the Russian energy it relied on for years. And Azerbaijan has been only too happy to help. In 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed a memorandum of understanding with the South Caucasus country to expand gas exports.

Then, as host of the COP29 summit, which runs through the end of this week, the authoritarian petrostate has unabashedly promoted its natural gas resources and flaunted new commercial arrangements with several European countries. President Ilham Aliyev even hosted a signing ceremony for one such deal on the conference sidelines.

However, in order to increase its exports to Europe, Azerbaijan has dramatically upped its own fossil fuel imports from Russia. Some researchers suspect the country may be simply relabeling some imported Russian fuel and sending it along to Europe, although Azerbaijan insists the supplies are merely for domestic use. Either way, though, Moscow benefits.

‘Azerbaijan is trying to position itself as a major EU energy partner,’ said Aura Sabadus, a gas markets expert at intelligence firm ICIS. ‘But they don’t have the production and, at the moment, they’re punching above their weight.’

The arrangement is just one of the compromises Western countries are making in aligning themselves with Azerbaijan. The petrostate is also overseeing a crackdown on local dissent that human rights groups say escalated ahead of its current moment on the global stage.

‘Europeans see Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russia, but buying energy from Azerbaijan means buying energy from Russia,’ said Zhala Bayramova, an Azerbaijani dissident who was this week handed the prestigious Magnitsky Human Rights Award for her activism.

Just last week, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy revealed that the country had boosted natural gas sales to Europe by 8.6 percent, accounting for almost a billion cubic meters of fuel.

That’s only the beginning. Azerbaijan’s state energy firm SOCAR has plans to boost annual gas production from around 37 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 49 bcm by 2033, contravening global climate goals to reduce fossil fuel production.

That ambition has been evident at COP29, where Aliyev clinched gas-related deals with Slovakia, Bulgaria and Serbia, paving the way for the country to strengthen its position as a major energy producer for the continent.

But Azerbaijan’s expected production increase is still well below the levels it needs to become one of the main players in supplying Europe..

Instead, Azerbaijan has begun importing natural gas from Russia’s state energy firm Gazprom — securing at least 1 billion cubic meters in an initial contract.

Baku is also in talks to acquire Russian gas and pump it through Ukraine into Central Europe — a potential workaround to keep the fuel flowing when Kyiv’s existing transit agreement with Moscow expires at year’s end.

But the creative solution is a thin mask for the inconvenient truth: Azerbaijan would essentially be laundering Russian gas for Europe," adds Politico.