Russia's force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin's current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, according to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

As per this report, the Kremlin is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria.

Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from Tuesday shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus.

Open-source analyst MT Anderson identified four Russian ships within this radius as of Tuesday—the Admiral Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, and the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.

Satellite imagery from Monday indicated that the Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma were in the same holding pattern as they are as of Tuesday.

Other open-source analysts noted that the Baltic Fleet's Alexander Shabalin Project 775 large landing ship exited the Baltic Sea maritime zone on Tuesday, potentially to facilitate the removal of some Russian military assets from Tartus to the Mediterranean—potentially Tobruk, Libya.