The viability of military alliances will remain challenged. This is stated in the 2025 Annual Report on External Security Risks of the Republic of Armenia of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia.

"In this regard, contrary to the founding agreement regulations, the CSTO’s incapacity (non-viability) to respond to the issues in the South Caucasus that are within CSTO statutory objectives, highly likely will not change," added the aforesaid report.

Also, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia assess it as unlikely that the reasons why Armenia froze its membership in the CSTO will change in 2025. Based on this, it assesses that the prestige of this organization will remain significantly questioned and a “food for thought” for other member states.

“The trend of increasing defense expenditure, arms procurement and development of the military industry by countries in and out of the region will be maintained. Therefore, a military response to problems will remain a primary modus operandi for the players of our smaller region as well.

These circumstances will continue creating asymmetric risks for states with objectively small reserves of material and non-material resources such as Armenia,” noted the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia.