Formally, the most important event for the South Caucasus in 2011 can be considered the signing of a treaty extending Russia’s military presence in Armenia, political analyst Alexander Khramchikhin told Armenian News-NEWS.am.

According to him, important and significant events in the region are expected in the near future.

“A new war will break out in the Karabakh conflict zone and it can be expected at any time even in 2012,” he said stressing there is 99.99% probability of war.

Head of Russia-based Institute for Political and Military Analysis said the “settlement of the conflict is fiction.”

Khramchikhin is also pessimistic about the future of Armenian-Turkish reconciliation process.

“Normalization has not progressed an inch over the recent years. Situation will remain the same 2012 - a new geopolitical role of Turkey does not suppose reconciliation with Armenia, because it gives nothing to Ankara,” he said.

The expert also commented on the developments in the Middle East, saying “it is clear that the Arab Spring leads to the Islamization of the affected states.”

“Saudi Arabia is governing the process. The next victim will be Syria, Assad apparently has no chance to escape. In the coming year Syria will be subject to the military defeat with a full occupation by a coalition consisting of the armed forces of Turkey, United States, UK and the Arab Sunni monarchies,” he concluded.