The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates that the GDP of the countries of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) will grow by 3 percent this year—that is, minus 0.5 percentage points). In 2026, the EBRD predicts that growth will remain unchanged at 4.4 percent, the EBRD stated, TASS reports.

The most significant reductions in the 2025 growth forecast in this region were observed in Azerbaijan (minus 1 percentage point, to 2%), Ukraine (minus 0.8 percentage points, to 2.5%), and Moldova (minus 0.3 percentage points, to 1.5%). The largest increases are expected in Georgia (7%, up 1 percentage point) and Armenia (5%).

In the case of Azerbaijan, risks are cited as “energy price volatility, global trade uncertainty and regional geopolitics.”