The analysis of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia suggests that the state-promoted narratives and parallel activities related to the so-called “western Azerbaijan” and the “return of western Azerbaijanis”  are a risk factor that has a significant negative impact on peacebuilding in the long term. This is stated in the “Armenia-Azerbaijan” section of the 2026 report on Armenia’s external risks published by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia.

The report adds as follows, in particular: “The intelligence collected by the Service indicates that Azerbaijan has not only reduced, but has significantly increased this propaganda since the Washington Declaration, which entails substantial risks for regional stability, security, and long-term peace.

In 2026, a priority task for the Service will be the continuous assessment of the true intention behind the state policy of promoting the “return of western Azerbaijanis”. In particular, it needs to be assessed whether by using these narratives as a new national ideology Azerbaijan intends to transport the conflict into the territory of Armenia in some new form or to use it as a tool for foreign policy bargaining and, more precisely, as a way to offset the issue of the return of Karabakh Armenians.

Moreover, the Service has observed an increase in Azerbaijan’s military expenditure. We assess this as a risk factor not only due to the net increase of military spending, but also the fact that the growth rate of military expenditure substantially exceeds that of spending on other sectors and, in many cases, highly likely, occurs at their expense.”