With regard to the external threats that Armenia faces this year, assessments on predicted foreign interference and hybrid threats objectively take up a lot of space due to the general elections scheduled in the country in 2026. This is stated in the “Hybrid Threats” section of the 2026 report on Armenia’s external risks published by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia.

The report adds as follows, in particular: “In 2025, Armenia faced various manifestations of hybrid threats, which, due to the elections scheduled for 2026, will highly likely become more comprehensive, complex and large-scale.

Hybrid activities directed against Armenia pursue multiple goals, including stripping the opportunity for peace of its value and significance, belittling its very fact, as well as the achievements on the path to peace and the positivity around it; instilling conspiracy theories to make it seem as if secret agreements have been made against Armenia’s interests; and exploiting the sensitivities of our compatriots displaced from Karabakh by serving our public with false geopolitical choices. 

In 2026, it is highly likely that hybrid activities aiming to influence the implementation of TRIPP project will become substantially more active. As outlined in 2025, the regional and nonregional actors targeting the project highly likely conduct partially overlapping activities, even when pursuing different objectives.

The toolkit used by state and non-state actors engaged in hybrid activities against Armenia will highly likely include: 

a․ Hostile Cyber Operations These operations aim to paralyse Armenia’s critical infrastructures and incapacitate their management, to disrupt the provision of vital services, etc. It is highly likely that the targets will be:   

- financial and banking institutions;  

- transport and communication infrastructures;  

- digital platforms of the government (such as those of the Central Electoral Commission, district and precinct  electoral commissions), including digital infrastructures used for the provision of public services; 

- digital infrastructures of electric grids, etc.

b․ Malign Information Operations  In the pre-election period, the malign information operations by external actors are conducted in the form of targeting our public with fake and distorted and out-of-context information, and importing narratives contradicting Armenia’s interests with the goal of influencing the votes. A combination of overt and covert information operations is used.

Overt activities are usually conducted by foreign state/government bodies, including special services and associated resources. Covert activities, which often feed and multiply overt activities, use websites and accounts that do not bear visible traces of any foreign state actor in order to spread more extreme and shocking narratives.

In 2025, we have observed tactics of spreading disinformation, as well as false or distorted information, through fake accounts and advertisements, and bot networks. Opportunities for generating fake text, audio and video content using AI have continued to grow, setting a stable trend of spreading a large volume of disinformation through the use of flexible and rapidly developing tools. This trend will highly likely become more widespread in 2026. 

We assess that in 2026 the trend of planting false information in foreign outlets and then “legitimizing” it through official and unofficial resources of regional actors will persist, as was the case in 2025.

Another persisting method will likely be the creation of new platforms for the publication and subsequent dissemination of disinformation.

In 2025, we have observed uses of new resources, including ones imitating real persons and websites, that have highly likely been created exclusively for the purpose of spreading fake information.

The most dangerous trend of malign influence operations will continue to be the seemingly subtle combination of fake information with true information, as well as its dissemination and consolidation through real platforms and persons with wide audiences.”