What is happening in Iran is a "red flag" for Armenia. In wartime conditions, the policy of complementarity acceptable in peacetime is no longer sufficient. The country needs to clearly define its strategic and civilizational development vector. This was stated on March 2 by economist Tatul Manasaryan, head of the Alternative research center, at a roundtable discussion titled "Events in Iran and the Destruction of International Law."

According to him, nearly half of Armenia's economic growth last year came from electricity exports to Iran. Given the current situation, not only existing volumes but all prospective energy projects are now at risk. "This is already a real threat to Armenia's energy security and investment security as a whole," Manasaryan stressed.

Manasaryan also pointed to demographic risks. Armenia's population is small compared to Iran's, so even a short-term influx of Iranian tourists had a noticeable impact on the economy — people rented out apartments and purchasing power grew. Now the reverse process is expected: a rising flow of refugees and political emigrants from Iran. "Over the past 2–3 years, there have already been more Iranians than Armenians in the queue for US visas. This process will intensify," the expert forecast. Demographic risks, he said, will directly affect the financial system and consumer market.

Furthermore, the Armenian dram has already appreciated by more than 20% since the start of the conflict in Ukraine and continues to strengthen. At the same time, prices are rising, particularly for essential goods. The official consumer price index remains within 4%, but the real increase in the cost of living will be more pronounced. "New processes are inevitable," Manasaryan warned.

Manasaryan also separately highlighted Armenia's transport and communications security — an issue that will be directly affected by the conflict.