The IRGC declared on Tuesday that it will not allow oil to be exported from the region while US and Israeli strikes continue. In response, Trump threatened to hit Iran "twenty times harder" if it blocks exports.

Despite threats from both sides, investors are betting that Trump will soon end the war to avoid a global economic crisis from unprecedented energy supply disruptions. After Trump described the war on Monday as "going at a fast pace," the oil price surge recorded the day before almost fully reversed, and stock markets in Asia and Europe began recovering.

Tehran residents told Reuters of "the most intense bombardment of the entire war" on Tuesday night. "It was like hell. They bombed everywhere, every district of Tehran," one resident said.

A source familiar with Israel's plans noted that the IDF is operating on the assumption that Trump could order a halt to the war at any moment, and is seeking to inflict as much damage as possible while it can.

Trump held a press conference, which experts believe calmed markets by signaling that the US would stop hostilities before the war triggers a crisis similar to the oil shocks of the 1970s. He said the US has already inflicted serious damage, and the conflict will end before the four weeks he originally planned.

The war has effectively halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and LNG passes. The blockage has caused storage facilities to overflow and production to halt.

After the appointment of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, oil prices briefly spiked to nearly $120 per barrel, but by Tuesday morning, Brent had fallen to $92, indicating traders expect exports to resume soon.

Trump said US military power is sufficient to ensure oil flows through the strait. An IRGC spokesman responded that Tehran will not allow "a single drop" of oil to reach the US or its allies while strikes continue.

A quick end to the war to resume oil supplies could mean Iran's leadership remains in power — large demonstrations in support of the new Supreme Leader were held on Monday. Despite Trump's maximalist demands to participate in choosing Iran's leader, the US administration says the main war objective is destroying Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program. Israel, meanwhile, has openly stated its desire to topple the country's religious leaders.