The signing of the agreement to implement the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project has upset the regional balance in the South Caucasus, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said in an interview with TASS.

“The problem is that these signatures have triggered deeper processes. They have upset the regional balance that has existed since 1828, when the Treaty of Turkmenchay was signed,” he said.

Overchuk recalled that at that time the lands of the Erivan and Nakhichevan khanates were ceded to the Russian Empire, and the border was established along the geographical border, the Araks River. Since then, this has been a generally peaceful border, guaranteed by agreements between the two large neighbors, he added.

The Russian deputy premier emphasized that Russia’s participation in the trilateral working group of deputy prime ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia allowed to ensure a balance of interests between all the countries present, taking into account Armenia’s sovereignty, jurisdiction, territorial integrity, and economic interests.

“Azerbaijan was constructive. And the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was already negotiating with the EAEU on the opening of mutual markets, did not feel the threats posed by inviting Americans to the northern bank of the Araks [River],” he noted.

“Now, Armenia has announced that this project will be implemented without Russia. Turkey has already begun to spend money on the construction of the railway to Nakhchivan, and the prospects for the restoration of the Meghri section have become less clear. All this creates pressure on Armenia,” Overchuk noted. “The desire not to see Russia in the de-blockade process was a big mistake.”

Armenia has decided to cede 74% of its transit revenues, agreeing to the “Trump Route.” This is its right, he stated.

The cargo transported via the “Trump Route” will reach Turkey directly, and Armenia will receive its 26%. They have the right to cede 74% of their transit revenues. But if Armenia had remained in the trilateral working group, co-chaired by the deputy prime ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, the construction of this road would have already been completed, while it would have remained the sole property of the country through whose territory it passes. There are no illusions about the course of the main cargo traffic after Nakhchivan, and there should be no illusions. The proposed sections for recovery will mainly serve the needs of Armenia’s economy,” Overchuk added.

He noted that the long-term prospects for the use of the “Trump Route” are uncertain, since this project is based on the flow of goods from Central Asia through the narrowing waters of the Caspian Sea.

“The stakes are that the bulk of the traffic on the ‘Trump Route’ will be cargo arriving by sea from Central Asia. However, the long-term prospects for the Middle Corridor are quite uncertain. The climate is changing, and the Caspian Sea is becoming shallower,” he said.

Overchuk noted that the development and maintenance of port infrastructure to ensure the necessary level of cargo transportation “carries serious investment risks.”

“If the Caspian Sea continues to dry up at the same pace as it has over the past thirty years, investors will have to rely on Russian railways. Otherwise, they must be ready to carry out permanent dredging work,” the Russian deputy prime minister added.

“This is not a fantasy. The example of the Aral Sea shows that such natural disasters can happen very quickly in the region,” he stated.

Moreover, the construction of a direct railway route between Turkey and Azerbaijan is already underway, regardless of the lifting of the blockade of Armenia, Overchuk stated.

“Regardless of what they say in Turkey about not spending billions [of dollars] on the construction of a new road, and that if Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey are in the process of normalizing relations, then it is better to invest relatively small amounts in the restoration and repair of two short sections on the territory of Armenia, we must understand the following: construction is already underway in Turkey; this issue is not even being discussed. Literally a few days after the signing ceremony in Washington, Turkey began to expand its road to Azerbaijan,” he said.

If Russia no longer has interests in Armenia, then there will be few reasons for cargo transportation through its territory, Overchuk added.

According to him, Armenia’s ability to negotiate the direction of cargo transportation after the Meghri section is limited, and the matter has already been resolved in a different way.

“The desire to route cargo through Armenia is understandable, but it must be admitted that this issue has already been resolved in a different way. And by signing the relevant documents, Armenia agreed to it,” Overchuk noted. “This should have been agreed on the shore, but now the negotiating space is very limited.”

“Western investors and neighbors may lose patience. If this deal is ever finalized, if the contract is signed, Armenia will receive only 26% of the Meghri section management company," the Russian deputy PM said. "By the way, our railway partners are already thinking about whether Russia will use the Turkish railway."