Russia is unlikely to begin completely severing relations with Armenia before the latter’s parliamentary elections in June, but it will prepare for increased economic and trade costs on Yerevan if the latter continues to maintain its distance from Moscow after the vote, according to the US think tank Stratfor.

As per Stratfor, the most likely respective tools include stricter trade oversight, regulatory barriers such as sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and exploitation of Armenia’s energy dependence, which would disproportionately affect Armenian exporters and businesses connected to the Russian market.

According to Stratfor, if Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan receives a new mandate after the parliamentary election and continues to reduce Russia’s economic and strategic presence in Armenia, Moscow is likely to use these tools, given the asymmetry of their relationship and its ability to impose disproportionate costs on Armenia.