Armenia emerges as the most exposed of the three South Caucasus states to the spillover effects of the Iran war. Independent think tank Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS) came to this conclusion in its analysis of the impact of this conflict on the region.

According to this think tank, the ongoing conflict threatens to disrupt trade flows between Iran and Armenia and to weigh more broadly on Armenia's foreign commerce, given that Iran serves as a vital transit route for approximately 25% of Armenian trade—channeled primarily through the Port of Bandar Abbas on the Arabian Gulf.

The vulnerability of this dependence is compounded by the absence of viable alternatives: borders with Azerbaijan to the east and Turkey to the west remain closed amid persistent tensions. Beyond trade, the war carries additional risks for Armenia, including disruptions to energy transport routes, increased pressure on border management and security, and potential migration flows.

At the same time, FARAS noted that the war could accelerate positive processes for Armenia. Analysts believe that the threat of regional instability will lead to a final settlement and opening of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Turkey will fully normalize relations with Armenia. The main incentive for Turkey is the “Trump Route” (TRIPP) project, which will pass through Armenia. For Turkey, the benefits are equally compelling: integration across energy, transport, and digital infrastructure, with planned railways, oil and gas pipelines, and fiber-optic networks along the route positioning Ankara as a regional hub for energy and communications.

According to FARAS, for Armenia, the corridor could open meaningful avenues into international economic networks through its gateways to Turkey and Azerbaijan, while potentially ending the isolation imposed by its closed borders on both flanks.