The peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by US President Donald Trump in August 2025, will not bring lasting peace, according to the Middle East Forum (MEF) think tank.

According to the MEF, none of the partners professing to seek peace is sincere. Trump seeks a Nobel Prize and his name on signs. This is precisely why the corridor passing through southern Armenia was named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will play the loyal yes-man to keep his job.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rushes concessions to position himself as the only candidate in forthcoming parliamentary elections who can deliver peace, no matter that under his watch, Armenia fought two wars and lost both badly.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, meanwhile, hopes to use the corridor to bifurcate Armenia’s Syunik Province.

According to the MEF, the basic problem with the TRIPP is that it serves no economic purpose. Azerbaijan and Turkey could enjoy trade and transit across Armenia if they established diplomatic relations and ended their blockade. While Aliyev regularly complained about “closed borders,” Azerbaijani cargo traffic has been quietly carried out through Iran for years, effectively bypassing economic isolation.

The domestic political situation in Azerbaijan poses a separate threat. Aliyev has just abolished the autonomy of the landlocked Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, establishing direct rule there. In doing so, he has essentially neutralized his rival, the local Taliban clan. The MEF describes the looming conflict in the country as a “three-way mafia war” between the Aliyev, Taliban, and Pashayev families. If Aliyev comes under pressure, he will likely launch a new military adventurism against Armenia to restore his image of power.

The MEF’s conclusion is stark: “if Trump and Rubio force TRIPP, they will bring not a peace about which the president and Pashinyan can brag, but rather, a spectacular collapse. There simply can be no lasting peace until Azerbaijan experiences real and lasting reform.”