If Baku decides to attack the south of Armenia, I don't see that this monitoring mission will prevent it. Stefan Meister from German Council on Foreign Relations, stated this on the air of Armenian News-NEWS.am's Strength Factor program,.

The European Union has decided to extend the mission for 2 years. It is clear why this is important for Armenia. But why is the presence of the mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border important for the European Union?

I think what we can see in the last years is an increasing engagement of the EU in Armenia, not only in supporting democratization reforms in the country, but also supporting security of the country in the lines with what the EU is able to supply. I think there is an increasing engagement of the EU on security issues, and I think this monitoring mission is an expression in a way that the EU wants to bring more transparency this border line to prevent also attacks. Even if it's a civil mission, but I think it brought more transparency into this border line. So it's about de-escalating the situation and supporting a peaceful situation in the region. I think it's  really about being more present, being more active in the region and preventing further escalation. I think that's definitely in the interest of the European Union.

During the presence of the European mission, there have been no serious escalations along the border yet. But we have been hearing quite tough statements from Baku lately, and Aliyev has directly threatened to seize the “Zangezur corridor” by force. If, for example, Aliyev decides to attack Armenia again, will the European Union be able to restrain Azerbaijan?

This is a hurdle for Azerbaijan. As long as they are critical about this mission, I think in a way the mission brings some transparency and prevents also Azerbaijan acting more hostile. But if Baku decides to to attack the south of Armenia, I don't see that this monitoring mission will prevent it։ it's a civil mission, so it has more kind of preventive impact on not attacking, but as soon as they decided to attack, the mission will withdraw. So it's not a security guarantee or a military mission, but a civil mission, it's about transparency. So if this decision is made, there's no action I see, at least in the military sense, I would expect from the EU or from the mission.

Does the European Union have any political leverage to refrain Azerbaijan from attacking the territory of Armenia? Could there be sanctions against Azerbaijan in that case?

I think besides this mission it's first of all sanctions, also against decision makers in Baku. The problem is there is no unity among the member states on sanctions. I think it depends on what Azerbaijan is doing. To be honest, I think Baku is more looking what Washington is doing, and how Washington acts now with the new president, how much is Trump really interested in South Caucasus and in this conflict. They are really afraid of large-scale sanctions from Europe. Some member states are important export countries for Azerbaijani gas. I think there is also kind of leverage from the other side. So that's why I'm not very sure about sanctions on Baku.

Azerbaijan is considered as the strategic partner for the European Union in the sphere of energy. That was declared by the high-level European officials, the president of Azerbaijan also speaks about the importance of Azerbaijan for diversification of the European market. And we saw that after the ethnic cleansing made by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh there weren’t any sanctions against Azerbaijan. Would be there sanctions this time, if Azerbaijan decides to attack Armenia?

I think it's a different war. Let's call it like this: then it was in Karabakh, time it will be in the southern territory of Armenia. We saw already some incursions into Armenian territory in 2022, and there was not really a reaction or a very limited reaction at this time, but I think there is now more EU engagement and more alignment also between Armenia and the EU. So I would expect more reactions also by bigger member states. But as you said, I think the entire EU isn’t dependent on Azerbaijani gas or has an interest in this corridor. It's some specific member states, who have this and they will block any kind of united sanctions against Azerbaijan. But again: if this is a bigger attack, I can imagine there is a strong push also from bigger member states, like Germany and France, to push sanctions forward. But yeah, I would be always realistic what to expect from the EU with going into conflicts if you have 27 member states and they have to all agree on sanctions.

The Armenian government has decided to begin the process of joining the EU based on the initiative of some parties. But Brussels has not yet clarified whether Armenia is expected in the European Union or not. Moreover, there is a queue of countries that want to become part of the EU - Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, the countries in the Balkans. Is there a real prospect for Armenia to join the European Union or is it an illusion?

I would not exclude that this option persists. Armenia as a European country has the option to join the EU. I'm just very skeptical what joining the EU means, also for countries like Ukraine, Moldova and maybe Georgia at the later point, because I don't see this classical EU integration anymore where you have a full-fledged integration and you have a say in any sector as a member state of the EU. I would rather expect partly integration in some sectors which are beneficial also for the countries of both sides. But for instance for Armenia I don't see the benefit of a full integration into the EU also with its geopolitical environment. With the products it offers it's very questionable if it's really competitive on the European market. It would make sense for Armenia to stay also on other markets without fulfilling all the conditions of the EU. So I see that in some areas like traveling, visa agreement, maybe in also in economic sectors, in energy policy it could make sense to have a deeper integration, but I don't think it's also for Armenia beneficial to have this full-fledged integration.