Armenian News-NEWS.am presents an extract by the Atlantic Treaty Association expert Giuseppe Belardetti published on Atlantic Sentinel.
A minor incident could cause the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to turn hot, threatening European oil supplies, the regional balance in the Caucasus and Anatolia as well as increasing the European Union’s dependence on Russia.
The border dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could flare up again, as recently demonstrated by an alleged ambush of Armenian troops by Azerbaijani forces. The incident, happening in Armenia, not the contested area of Nagorno-Karabakh, is viewed as an escalation of tensions. Conflict is now more likely due to Azerbaijan’s fuel growth of its military capabilities.
A small incident could spiral into a full blown conflict. The military solution is not in the interest of either country. Armenia is feeling its military weaknesses and aware that it would need Russia’s help. The price to pay for a military conflict could be a further loss of independence for both countries, including political and military autonomy.
A total war between the two countries is to be excluded as Azerbaijan will try to make all it can to keep a constant and regular income for its development programs and investments.