Azerbaijan’s problem is that the Armenians still have two advantages on the military side, political analyst Thomas de Waal said.

In an interview with RFE/RL Azerbaijani service, he commented on release of the revised edition of his famous book “The Black Garden: Armenia And Azerbaijan Through Peace And War”.

Speaking about Armenia’s advantages, the expert mentioned mountainous landscape “which is always easier to defend than to attack” and buying weapons from Russia at reduced prices.

Thomas de Waal noted that Azerbaijan had turned into an oil and gas power “but the paradox is it has got nothing, nothing with regard to Karabakh.”

“So this has been zero success for Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue,” he believes.

Noting changes in Karabakh, the expert of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said “everything has been rebuilt” and “the distinction between Karabakh and the seven regions around it is beginning to blur” which, he believes, is a rather worrying fact.

He stressed that the possible war is not only about Azerbaijan, Armenia and Karabakh, as it will involve broader region.

“And maybe this, in a sense, is a good thing, because it means there is an interest in the neighborhood in stopping this happening.”

Despite all mentioned problems, de Waal still thinks reconciliation is possible.

“I definitely believe reconciliation is possible. But, as you say, there was this very unpleasant campaign against Akram Aylisli, a respected Azerbaijani writer who was talking about peace and reconciliation. So that obviously sends a bad message. Let’s wait and see whether this is just a phase in Azerbaijan, if this has to do with Azerbaijani politics, or whether this is a longer-term problem,” he added.