Turkey will intensify military operations after American troops leave Syria, which will jeopardize the safety of the Armenian population, expert in Turkic studies Karen Hovhannisyan told Armenian News-NEWS.am. He is convinced that Ankara will try to strengthen its influence in the region, which is fraught with escalation of conflicts.

What could be the reason behind this decision by the United States in this particular period?

The decree to withdraw troops from Syria that was signed by U.S. President Donald Trump is not new in terms of its content. Such decisions were made in the past, but they lead to nothing. This decision is not an exception, as the decree does not mention the timeframe for the withdrawal. At the moment thee is no movement of the American troops. Around 2,000 American troops are still in Syria. In this case we can talk about a deal between Turkey and the U.S. And, the leverage on Turkey is the lack of precise timeframe for the withdrawal of troops.

The U.S. State Department approved the sales of Patriot systems to Ankara. Can we assume that the United States are trying to pull Turkey on their side and keep it from further deepening relations with Russia?

Yes, there is a certain “selling-buying”. The decision to supply Ankara with the Patriot missile defense system is most likely tied to preventing Turkey from buying the Russian S-400 missile defense system. It should be noted that such “trade diplomacy” between Turkey and the United States has been held for three years now. Starting from 2015 the United States has been declaring the withdrawal of its troops from a particular region or a city of Syria. However, this has not happened yet. In addition to the arms sales, the issue of Syria refugees, as well as the safety of the oil pipeline from Iraq passing through Turkey are key issues for bargaining. Apparently, there are certain backstage games and arrangements. The processes definitely need to be considered in a wider context rather than confrontation on a specific issue. This confrontation will be exacerbated artificially, and Turkey will try to take advantage.

Does the decision to withdraw troops have any relation to the chill in Israel-Turkey relations?

Interestingly, every time Turkey tries to improve or deepen its relations with the United States, Israel, as a close ally of the United States, activates anti-Turkish rhetoric. This is due to the reluctance of strengthening Turkey in the region at the expense of the United States. In this case, the US is expecting a response from Turkey in the framework of the agreements reached behind the scenes. Israel will strengthen its anti-Turkish rhetoric if Ankara violates some points of the agreement.