Turkey will lead a relatively passive policy in the Caucasus. This is what Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia Ruben Safrastyan said during a March 18 press conference.

According to him, the reason for this is that Turkey leads a passive policy in the Caucasus whenever it leads an active policy in the Middle East and vice versa.

“This particularly became clear during the Four-Day Artsakh War that took place in April 2016 when Turkey tried to have a stronger impact through partnership with Azerbaijan. Although Turkey managed to gain some advantage in the fight for influence in the region with Saudi Arabia by taking advantage of the murder of journalist Khashogji, Ankara does not have such great potential to carry out its programs completely,” the expert stated.

Ruben Safrastyan stressed the fact that, amid this, as well as due to the lack of desire of any political party in Turkey, there is no need to predict any establishment of relations with Armenia.

“When Turkey recognized Armenia’s independence in 1991, it hoped that Armenia would be interested in the establishment of relations, taking into consideration the geopolitical situation and economic hardships. Ankara hoped that it would force Armenia to make concessions, but it failed,” the expert concluded.