The war between the US and Iran may lead to the escalation of other existing conflicts, but it is hard to say if the wave will reach the Caucasus. This is what researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo Pavel Baev told Armenian News-NEWS.am.
The analyst added that the crisis between the US and Iran has the potential to become a global issue.
“Different forces (Israel, Saudi Arabia, US, etc.) are interested in speculating this crisis in different manifestations. Trump personally doesn’t want to become engaged in the military conflict. His electorate isn’t interested in a conflict with Iran.
However, there is one member of the Trump administration who wants to see escalation of the crisis for various reasons, and that member is John Bolton. When so many different forces try to manipulate the conflict, there is a risk that the crisis may get out of hand and turn into a big war that will be truly be a real disaster for the world,” he said.
Pavel Baev noted that the oil market failed to give a serious response to the attacks on the oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and this attests to the fact that either the processes were initially calculated or are not taken seriously or the future events won’t entail big conflicts.