The public debt of the US will reach an “unprecedented level” of 144% of the country's GDP by 2049, said report published on Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office.
The document emphasizes that the state debt will reach such an indicator due to the high level of budget deficit and the norms contained in the current legislation of the country. According to the authors of the report, the national debt will increase from 78% of GDP in 2019 to 92% in 2029,
“In our extended baseline projections, budget deficits drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels. Debt rises from 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, which is already high by historical standards, to 144 percent by 2049. Our projections of debt, which are slightly lower than last year’s, incorporate our central estimates of various factors, such as productivity growth and interest rates on federal debt…As a result, we project that deficits would increase from 4.2 percent of GDP in 2019 to 4.5 percent by 2029 (a projection that we have adjusted to exclude the eﬀects of shifts in the timing of certain payments), 6.8 percent by 2039, and 8.7 percent by 2049. The average deficit over the past 50 years was 2.9 percent of GDP. The prospect of such large deficits over many years, and the high and rising debt that would result, poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policymakers with significant challenges,” the source noted.
According to the report, those outcomes can be greatly affected by future decisions about fiscal policy. If, instead of maintaining current law, lawmakers enacted legislation to maintain certain major policies now in place—most significantly, if they prevented a cut in discretionary spending in 2020 and an increase in individual income taxes in 2026—then debt held by the public would increase even more, reaching 219 percent of GDP by 2049. In the opposite direction, if Social Security benefits were limited to the amounts payable from revenues received by the Social Security trust funds (starting in 2033, when the balances in those funds are projected to be exhausted), debt in 2049 would reach 106 percent of GDP, still well above its current level.
At the moment, the US national debt is about $ 22.1 trillion. As reported in early January by CNN, analyzing the data of the Ministry of Finance, during the two years of Donald Trump’s presidency (since January 20, 2017), it has increased by over $ 2 trillion.
According to IMF forecasts, the US national debt will grow to 117% of GDP in 2023.
In the fiscal year 2018 (starting in the United States on October 1 - TASS), the national debt took a little more than six months to rise from $ 20 trillion to $ 21 trillion. Conservatives in Congress, however, state that government spending continues to be out of control, and this may lead to an even larger deficit in subsequent years.