The world is returning to an era of proxy wars from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh to Yemen, Tom Kington wrote in his article on Defense News.
In conflicts in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, drones often quickly bypassed ground systems designed to neutralize them, paving the way for light attacks on vulnerable troops, he wrote.
"First there was the video from Libya of a Turkish drone destroying a Russian Pantsir missile defense system.
Next came the veteran S-300 air defense system — also Russian — being taken out in Nagorno-Karabakh by an Israeli-built Harop loitering munition."
Moreover, according to experts, the balance of power between drones and air defense systems is becoming the key to global wars in the near future.
“Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and also Syria have just showed us that if a fielded force cannot protect its airspace, then the large scale use of UAVs can make life extremely dangerous,” said Justin Bronk, an air force research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in England.
Last year, the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drone made headlines during the Libyan conflict. “Turkey also sent in engineers who improved the software of the drones on the fly, while there was no similar learning curve with the Chinese UAVs operated by the UAE to assist Hifter,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the Switzerland-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.
Turkey, which supported Azerbaijan, reportedly sent training UAVs ahead of the conflict.
TB2, together with Israeli patrolling ammunition, soon succeeded: the Dutch research group Oryx reported that 134 Armenian tanks were destroyed against 22 Azerbaijani ones.
“Turkey built up its UAV expertise after leasing Israeli UAVs, then put that expertise to use building its own after frustrations over the limits placed on its use of the Israeli systems,” Bronk said. “The TB2 has a similar aerodynamic profile to the Heron, while the Turkish Anka UAV is similar to the Hermes 450.”
Manufacturer Bayraktar has sold TB2 to Qatar and Ukraine, while Serbia is considering a purchase.
“China and Turkey are vying for sales, which begs the question: Why doesn’t Russia have the equivalent of a TB2 to sell? I am very surprised they are almost absent in this market,” Harchaoui said.
The use of drones in the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has come at a cost: Canada has suspended arms exports to Turkey over claims that the TB2 contained Canadian parts, while the UK firm supplying the drone parts has also terminated the contract.
A number of countries, including Britain, meanwhile, are strengthening their ground defenses, Bronk said. “In light of this threat, the British Army has recently ordered a short/medium-range [surface-to-air missile] system called Sky Sabre. If deployed forward in significant numbers, it should dramatically reduce the Army’s vulnerability to both surveillance and attack by hostile UAVs in situations where friendly air cover is unavailable,” he said.
Drones aren't immune, however, he added. “U.S. and British Reapers and Predators in Syria had lots of problems with Russian electronic warfare. Since the Reaper can be targeted, you can imagine that less sophisticated platforms can be more easily affected,” he said.
The Bronk expects the military to increase spending on air defense to balance the drone threat - “particularly countries which don’t have strong air forces.”
“One option is the Russian SA-17 system, which has a 75-kilometer range compared to the 10 kilometers of TB2 missiles, or the cheaper and more contained SA-15 with a 10-kilometer range. Western products include the [National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System] NASAMS, which already helps to defend Washington, D.C., with a roughly 15-kilometer range and the NASAMS 2 with a 30- to 40-kilometer range,” he said.
Peter Roberts, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said the world is beginning to wake up to the reality of modern warfare. “For a while there was the romantic view that either drones or tanks or missiles would win wars on their own,” he said. “There is no silver bullet on the battlefield, and this is an era which is rediscovering that.”
Roberts added that urban warfare is also undergoing a renaissance, as is the art of deception in war.“Whether it’s the Russians in Ukraine or the Iranians, the use of decoys is back — something we once knew about, then forgot in the 1990s.”
According to him, the world is also returning to the era of proxy wars from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh and Yemen.“That means wars fought on the edge of great powers using mercenaries and sponsored guerilla groups and insurgents,” he said. “It also means more sophisticated weapons in the hands of smaller, nonstate groups like the Houthis in Yemen using cruise and ballistic missiles and drones. It is potentially very nasty.”
