The balance of supply and demand in the oil market in 2021 will develop towards a deficit of the latter in the amount of 1.2 million b/d, and not 0.8 million b/d, as previously expected, said the report, which will be considered by the OPEC + ministerial monitoring committee on Tuesday.
The forecast for global demand growth has also been improved, from 5.9 million bpd last month to 6 million bpd. Demand is expected at 96.5 million bpd. In total, OPEC + is considering two scenarios for the development of the situation on the oil market, the baseline and the alternative, in which the influence of negative factors is stronger. But even in this case, a surplus on the oil market is not expected this year, and demand will increase by at least 4.6 million bpd.
In total, OPEC + countries have managed to reduce the supply of oil on the market by 2.75 billion barrels since May 2020, the report says. However, if all countries complied with the agreement by 100%, then they would be able to reduce the supply by 2.88 billion barrels.